2026 state legislative forecast
Hawaii House forecast
Democrats win control of the Hawaii House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 51 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
47 to 48Median 48 · 26 for a majority
Favored to flip
5to D0to R
After 2024: 41 D, 8 R
Environment
D +15.1Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Hawaii House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 48 D to 3 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | Diamond Garcia 2024 | Anthony Makana Paris vs Diamond Garcia | R +6.3 | D +5.2 | 78% | Lean D |
| 40 | Julie Reyes Oda 2024 | Rose Martinez vs Julie Reyes Oda | R +8.7 | D +8.0 | 89% | Likely D |
| 45 | Chris Muraoka 2024 | Kalehua Kaopua vs Chris Muraoka | R +10.4 | D +8.3 | 89% | Likely D |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.