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NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Nevada Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Nevada Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. 11 of the 21 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 10 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 21On the ballot 11Nevada AssemblyAll chambers
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
13 to 14
Median 13 · 11 for a majority
Favored to flip
0to D0to R
After 2024: 13 D, 8 R
Environment
D +14.9
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Nevada Senate map

District 1, not up in 2026District 2: Democrats >99%District 3, not up in 2026District 4, not up in 2026District 5, not up in 2026District 6, not up in 2026District 7, not up in 2026District 8: Democrats 99%District 9: Democrats >99%District 10: Democrats >99%District 11, not up in 2026District 12: Democrats >99%District 13: Democrats >99%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15, not up in 2026District 16: Democrats 30%District 17: Democrats <1%District 18, not up in 2026District 19, not up in 2026District 20: Democrats 4%District 21: Democrats >99%810121314151617192021
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 13 D to 8 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 2: Democrats win >99%District 10: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win >99%District 12: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win 99%District 16: Democrats win 30%District 20: Democrats win 4%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
11 for a majority10111417

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
16Lisa Krasner 2022Chrystal L. Roll vs Lisa KrasnerR +14.2R +3.530%Lean R
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.