2026 state legislative forecast
Minnesota Senate forecast
Democrats win control of the Minnesota Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 67 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
38 to 45Median 42 ยท 34 for a majority
Favored to flip
9to D0to R
After 2024: 34 D, 33 R
Environment
D +12.5Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Minnesota Senate map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 42 D to 25 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | Zach Duckworth 2022 | Steven Schroer vs Zach Duckworth | R +6.7 | D +0.5 | 53% | Toss up |
| 24 | Carla Nelson 2022 | Simon Glaser vs Nels T. Pierson | R +3.8 | D +1.8 | 62% | Toss up |
| 54 | Eric Pratt 2022 | Rick Olson vs Ben Bakeberg | R +4.6 | D +2.3 | 65% | Lean D |
| 7 | Robert Farnsworth 2022 | Kim (Kotonias) McLaughlin vs Robert Farnsworth | R +13.7 | R +2.8 | 35% | Lean R |
| 58 | Bill Lieske 2022 | Mark Legvold vs Bill Lieske | R +6.5 | D +4.1 | 73% | Lean D |
| 2 | Steve Green 2022 | Dan R. Rogers vs Steve Green ยท Calvin Larson Jr (O) | R +16.5 | R +5.8 | 19% | Lean R |
| 32 | Michael Kreun 2022 | Chris Ford vs Michael Kreun | R +3.3 | D +6.0 | 82% | Lean D |
| 26 | Jeremy Miller 2022 | Jack Hedin vs Cherie Johnson | R +12.1 | R +6.0 | 18% | Likely R |
| 33 | Karin Housley 2022 | Nat Smith vs Karin Housley | D +0.6 | D +8.3 | 89% | Likely D |
| 48 | Julia Coleman 2022 | Dan Kessler vs Julia Coleman | D +0.2 | D +8.4 | 91% | Likely D |
| 14 | Aric Putnam 2022 | Aric Putnam vs Bernie Perryman | R +4.1 | D +9.4 | 93% | Likely D |
| 3 | Grant Hauschild 2022 | Grant Hauschild vs Andrea Zupancich | R +1.4 | D +9.4 | 92% | Likely D |
| 4 | Rob Kupec 2022 | Rob Kupec vs Austin Peterson | R +6.8 | D +10.8 | 95% | Likely D |
| 23 | Gene Dornink 2022 | Angie Hanson vs Gene Dornink | R +20.2 | R +11.9 | 4% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.