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NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Wisconsin Assembly forecast

Democrats win control of the Wisconsin Assembly in 69% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 99 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Lean DUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 99On the ballot 99Wisconsin SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
69%D31%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
46 to 55
Median 51 ยท 50 for a majority
Favored to flip
6to D0to R
After 2024: 45 D, 54 R
Environment
D +7.9
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Wisconsin Assembly map

District 1: Democrats 2%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats >99%District 8: Democrats >99%District 9: Democrats >99%District 10: Democrats >99%District 11: Democrats >99%District 12: Democrats >99%District 13: Democrats >99%District 14: Democrats >99%District 15: Democrats 8%District 16: Democrats >99%District 17: Democrats >99%District 18: Democrats >99%District 19: Democrats >99%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats 87%District 22: Democrats 15%District 23: Democrats >99%District 24: Democrats 9%District 25: Democrats 2%District 26: Democrats 91%District 27: Democrats <1%District 28: Democrats <1%District 29: Democrats <1%District 30: Democrats 49%District 31: Democrats <1%District 32: Democrats <1%District 33: Democrats <1%District 34: Democrats <1%District 35: Democrats <1%District 36: Democrats <1%District 37: Democrats <1%District 38: Democrats <1%District 39: Democrats <1%District 40: Democrats 97%District 41: Democrats <1%District 42: Democrats >99%District 43: Democrats 94%District 44: Democrats >99%District 45: Democrats 98%District 46: Democrats 98%District 47: Democrats >99%District 48: Democrats >99%District 49: Democrats <1%District 50: Democrats >99%District 51: Democrats 82%District 52: Democrats >99%District 53: Democrats 88%District 54: Democrats 97%District 55: Democrats 3%District 56: Democrats <1%District 57: Democrats <1%District 58: Democrats <1%District 59: Democrats <1%District 60: Democrats <1%District 61: Democrats 79%District 62: Democrats >99%District 63: Democrats 11%District 64: Democrats 99%District 65: Democrats 98%District 66: Democrats 99%District 67: Democrats <1%District 68: Democrats <1%District 69: Democrats <1%District 70: Democrats <1%District 71: Democrats 97%District 72: Democrats <1%District 73: Democrats >99%District 74: Democrats <1%District 75: Democrats <1%District 76: Democrats >99%District 77: Democrats >99%District 78: Democrats >99%District 79: Democrats >99%District 80: Democrats >99%District 81: Democrats >99%District 82: Democrats 20%District 83: Democrats <1%District 84: Democrats <1%District 85: Democrats 67%District 86: Democrats <1%District 87: Democrats <1%District 88: Democrats 82%District 89: Democrats 90%District 90: Democrats 98%District 91: Democrats 93%District 92: Democrats 47%District 93: Democrats 98%District 94: Democrats 80%District 95: Democrats 93%District 96: Democrats 95%District 97: Democrats <1%District 98: Democrats <1%District 99: Democrats <1%134562526272829303133343536373839404142434649505153565759606768697071727374758586879192939495969798
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 51 D to 48 R
District 7: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win >99%District 10: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win >99%District 12: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win >99%District 16: Democrats win >99%District 17: Democrats win >99%District 18: Democrats win >99%District 19: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win >99%District 47: Democrats win >99%District 48: Democrats win >99%District 62: Democrats win >99%District 73: Democrats win >99%District 76: Democrats win >99%District 77: Democrats win >99%District 78: Democrats win >99%District 79: Democrats win >99%District 80: Democrats win >99%District 81: Democrats win >99%District 52: Democrats win >99%District 50: Democrats win >99%District 42: Democrats win >99%District 44: Democrats win >99%District 14: Democrats win >99%District 66: Democrats win 99%District 64: Democrats win 99%District 90: Democrats win 98%District 45: Democrats win 98%District 93: Democrats win 98%District 65: Democrats win 98%District 46: Democrats win 98%District 40: Democrats win 97%District 71: Democrats win 97%District 54: Democrats win 97%District 96: Democrats win 95%District 43: Democrats win 94%District 91: Democrats win 93%District 95: Democrats win 93%District 26: Democrats win 91%District 89: Democrats win 90%District 53: Democrats win 88%District 21: Democrats win 87%District 88: Democrats win 82%District 51: Democrats win 82%District 94: Democrats win 80%District 61: Democrats win 79%District 85: Democrats win 67%District 30: Democrats win 49%District 92: Democrats win 47%District 82: Democrats win 20%District 22: Democrats win 15%District 63: Democrats win 11%District 24: Democrats win 9%District 15: Democrats win 8%District 55: Democrats win 3%District 1: Democrats win 2%District 25: Democrats win 2%District 41: Democrats win <1%District 49: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 34: Democrats win <1%District 74: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 72: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 56: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 35: Democrats win <1%District 36: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 38: Democrats win <1%District 39: Democrats win <1%District 57: Democrats win <1%District 58: Democrats win <1%District 59: Democrats win <1%District 60: Democrats win <1%District 67: Democrats win <1%District 68: Democrats win <1%District 69: Democrats win <1%District 70: Democrats win <1%District 75: Democrats win <1%District 83: Democrats win <1%District 84: Democrats win <1%District 86: Democrats win <1%District 87: Democrats win <1%District 97: Democrats win <1%District 98: Democrats win <1%District 99: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
50 for a majority3141505763

Every Assembly district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
30Shannon Zimmerman 2024Kevin Knoke vs Shannon ZimmermanR +4.5R +0.149%Toss up
92Clint Moses 2024Jeremiah Fredrickson vs Clint MosesR +7.1R +0.447%Toss up
85Patrick Snyder 2024John Kroll vs Patrick SnyderR +0.6D +2.967%Lean D
82Scott Allen 2024Rico Camacho vs Bryson ReyesR +8.2R +5.020%Lean R
94Steve Doyle 2024Steve Doyle vs Keith PurnellR +2.2D +5.780%Lean D
61Bob Donovan 2024Ben Brist vs Bob DonovanD +2.3D +5.979%Lean D
88Benjamin Franklin 2024Brandy Tollefson vs Ben FranklinD +0.4D +6.382%Likely D
51Todd Novak 2024Ben Gruber vs Todd Novak ยท Nathan Tataje (O)D +3.5D +6.582%Likely D
22Paul Melotik 2024Dana Glasstein vs Paul MelotikR +10.1R +6.815%Likely R
21Jessie Rodriguez 2024Dan J. Bukiewicz vs Dylan PfaffenbachD +4.2D +7.187%Likely D
53Dean R Kaufert 2024Becky Nichols vs David Daniels ยท Rachael Dowling (I)D +4.4D +8.188%Likely D
63Robert Wittke 2024Eddie Phanichkul vs Robert WittkeR +14.5R +8.211%Likely R
24Dan Knodl 2024Matt Brown vs Dan KnodlR +10.0R +8.79%Likely R
89Ryan Spaude 2024Ryan Spaude vs Bobby LindseyD +2.0D +8.890%Likely D
15Adam Neylon 2024Stephen Tryon vs Adam NeylonR +12.7R +9.28%Likely R
26Joe Sheehan 2024Joe Sheehan vs John BelangerD +2.7D +9.291%Likely D
95Jill Billings 2024Jill Billings vs Cedric Schnitzler ยท Paul Michael Weber (I)D +2.2D +9.593%Likely D
91Jodi Emerson 2024Jodi Emerson vs Bruce StabenowD +4.6D +10.393%Likely D
43Brienne Brown 2024Brienne Brown vs Paul McGrawD +5.3D +10.494%Likely D
96Tara Johnson 2024Tara Johnson vs Jim GreenD +8.4D +11.695%Likely D

Legislative ballot polls

Weight 38%
PollsterField endDR
Marquette Law School Poll2026-07-164642
Marquette Law School Poll2026-08-204444
Marquette Law School Poll2026-08-204845
Marquette Law School Poll2026-09-234544
Marquette Law School Poll2026-09-234845
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.