2026 state legislative forecast
North Carolina Senate forecast
Republicans win control of the North Carolina Senate in 71% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 50 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
15%D71%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
21 to 26Median 23 ยท 26 for a majority
Favored to flip
3to D0to R
After 2024: 20 D, 30 R
Environment
D +9.0Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
North Carolina Senate map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 24 D to 26 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Buck Newton 2024 | Jessica "Jess" Rivera vs Buck Newton | R +10.1 | R +0.1 | 50% | Toss up |
| 34 | Paul Newton 2024 | April Cook vs Kevin Crutchfield | R +7.9 | D +1.6 | 59% | Toss up |
| 1 | Bobby Hanig 2024 | Melissa Zehner vs Jerry Tillett | R +15.0 | R +4.7 | 24% | Lean R |
| 7 | Michael Lee 2024 | Jessica Bichler vs Michael Lee | R +1.1 | D +5.2 | 78% | Lean D |
| 2 | Norman W Sanderson 2024 | Roy Surrett vs Norman Sanderson | R +16.8 | R +5.7 | 18% | Lean R |
| 24 | Danny Earl Britt Jr 2024 | Catina Hamm vs Danny Earl Britt Jr. | R +15.1 | R +6.3 | 17% | Likely R |
| 11 | Lisa Stone Barnes 2024 | James D. Gailliard vs Lisa Stone Barnes | R +3.5 | D +7.0 | 86% | Likely D |
| 3 | Bob Brinson 2024 | Charles Dudley vs Bob Brinson | R +19.9 | R +10.1 | 7% | Likely R |
| 25 | Amy Scott Galey 2024 | Southey Blanton vs Amy Scott Galey | R +19.7 | R +10.2 | 7% | Likely R |
| 18 | Terence Everitt 2024 | Haseeb Fatmi vs Chris Stock | D +1.8 | D +11.0 | 95% | Likely D |
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 50%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research for Carolina Forward | 2026-05-08 | 47 | 41 |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation | 2026-05-11 | 47.5 | 41.3 |
| Catawba College / YouGov | 2026-06-10 | 45 | 37 |
| Change Research for Carolina Forward | 2026-08-06 | 48 | 41 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-08-12 | 48 | 46 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-08-12 | 45 | 43 |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation | 2026-08-10 | 48 | 42.6 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-09-16 | 49 | 44 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-09-16 | 47 | 42 |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation | 2026-09-15 | 49.5 | 41.3 |
| Change Research for Carolina Forward | 2026-10-07 | 49 | 42 |
| Catawba College / YouGov | 2026-09-15 | 48 | 38 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-04-06 | 48 | 44 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-04-06 | 46 | 42 |
| High Point University Poll | 2026-02-20 | 46 | 41 |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation | 2026-03-23 | 45.3 | 43.2 |
| Change Research for Carolina Forward | 2026-01-07 | 43 | 43 |
| Elon University Poll / YouGov | 2026-03-20 | 41 | 37 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.