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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Arkansas Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Arkansas Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 17 of the 35 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 18 carry over until 2028; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 35On the ballot 17Arkansas HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
7 to 8
Median 7 · 18 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 6 D, 29 R
Environment
D +9.2
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Arkansas Senate map

District 1, not up in 2026District 2: Democrats <1%District 3, not up in 2026District 4, not up in 2026District 5, not up in 2026District 6, not up in 2026District 7: Democrats <1%District 8, not up in 2026District 9: Democrats 97%District 10: Democrats <1%District 11: Democrats <1%District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats 55%District 14: Democrats >99%District 15: Democrats >99%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17, not up in 2026District 18, not up in 2026District 19, not up in 2026District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats <1%District 22, not up in 2026District 23, not up in 2026District 24: Democrats <1%District 25, not up in 2026District 26, not up in 2026District 27: Democrats 87%District 28: Democrats <1%District 29, not up in 2026District 30: Democrats >99%District 31: Democrats <1%District 32: Democrats <1%District 33, not up in 2026District 34, not up in 2026District 35: Democrats <1%1234567891011131416171819202122232425262728293031323435
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 7 D to 28 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 14: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 30: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win 97%District 27: Democrats win 87%District 13: Democrats win 55%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 21: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%District 35: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
18 for a majority310

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
13Jane English 2022Allison Sweatman vs Brandon AchorR +4.9D +0.755%Toss up
27Justin Boyd 2022Eduardo Guzman vs Justin BoydR +12.4D +7.687%Likely D
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.