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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Wisconsin Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Wisconsin Senate in 97% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 17 of the 33 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 16 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 33On the ballot 17Wisconsin AssemblyAll chambers
Chance of control
97%D3%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
17 to 19
Median 18 · 17 for a majority
Favored to flip
3to D0to R
After 2024: 15 D, 18 R
Environment
D +7.9
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Wisconsin Senate map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2, not up in 2026District 3: Democrats >99%District 4, not up in 2026District 5: Democrats 99%District 6, not up in 2026District 7: Democrats >99%District 8, not up in 2026District 9: Democrats <1%District 10, not up in 2026District 11: Democrats <1%District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats <1%District 14, not up in 2026District 15: Democrats >99%District 16, not up in 2026District 17: Democrats 94%District 18, not up in 2026District 19: Democrats <1%District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats 94%District 22, not up in 2026District 23: Democrats <1%District 24, not up in 2026District 25: Democrats 22%District 26, not up in 2026District 27: Democrats >99%District 28, not up in 2026District 29: Democrats 6%District 30, not up in 2026District 31: Democrats 94%District 32, not up in 2026District 33: Democrats <1%1289101112131415161718192021222324252729303132
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 18 D to 15 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 3: Democrats win >99%District 7: Democrats win >99%District 27: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 5: Democrats win 99%District 31: Democrats win 94%District 21: Democrats win 94%District 17: Democrats win 94%District 25: Democrats win 22%District 29: Democrats win 6%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 13: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
17 for a majority1215172023

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
25Romaine Robert Quinn 2022Charly Ray vs Erik SeversonR +13.8R +5.122%Lean R
17Howard Marklein 2022Jenna Jacobson vs Howard MarkleinD +1.0D +9.894%Likely D
21Van H Wanggaard 2022Trevor Jung vs Jim CroftD +1.3D +10.094%Likely D
31Jeff Smith 2022Jeff Smith vs Michele Magadance SkinnerD +2.2D +10.994%Likely D
29Cory Tomczyk 2022Gillian Battino vs Cory TomczykR +19.5R +11.06%Likely R

Legislative ballot polls

Weight 38%
PollsterField endDR
Marquette Law School Poll2026-07-164642
Marquette Law School Poll2026-08-204444
Marquette Law School Poll2026-08-204845
Marquette Law School Poll2026-09-234544
Marquette Law School Poll2026-09-234845
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. Wisconsin's legislative maps were redrawn in 2024. Each Senate district's 2024 presidential vote is summed from its three Assembly districts on the new lines, and the 2022 results, which were on the old lines, carry no weight. All chambers.