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NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Pennsylvania Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Pennsylvania Senate in 81% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 25 of the 50 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 25 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 50On the ballot 25Pennsylvania HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
5%D81%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
21 to 25
Median 23 · 26 for a majority
Favored to flip
0to D0to R
After 2024: 22 D, 28 R
Environment
D +8.3
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Pennsylvania Senate map

District 1, not up in 2026District 2: Democrats >99%District 3, not up in 2026District 4: Democrats >99%District 5, not up in 2026District 6: Democrats 31%District 7, not up in 2026District 8: Democrats >99%District 9, not up in 2026District 10: Democrats 99%District 11, not up in 2026District 12: Democrats >99%District 13, not up in 2026District 14: Democrats 85%District 15, not up in 2026District 16: Democrats 25%District 17, not up in 2026District 18: Democrats 98%District 19, not up in 2026District 20: Democrats <1%District 21, not up in 2026District 22: Democrats >99%District 23, not up in 2026District 24: Democrats 30%District 25, not up in 2026District 26: Democrats >99%District 27, not up in 2026District 28: Democrats <1%District 29, not up in 2026District 30: Democrats <1%District 31, not up in 2026District 32: Democrats <1%District 33, not up in 2026District 34: Democrats <1%District 35, not up in 2026District 36: Democrats 20%District 37, not up in 2026District 38: Democrats 99%District 39, not up in 2026District 40: Democrats 10%District 41, not up in 2026District 42: Democrats >99%District 43, not up in 2026District 44: Democrats 92%District 45, not up in 2026District 46: Democrats 21%District 47, not up in 2026District 48: Democrats <1%District 49, not up in 2026District 50: Democrats <1%61011121314151618192021222324252728293031323334353638394041444647484950
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 23 D to 27 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 2: Democrats win >99%District 4: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win >99%District 42: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 12: Democrats win >99%District 10: Democrats win 99%District 38: Democrats win 99%District 18: Democrats win 98%District 44: Democrats win 92%District 14: Democrats win 85%District 6: Democrats win 31%District 24: Democrats win 30%District 16: Democrats win 25%District 46: Democrats win 21%District 36: Democrats win 20%District 40: Democrats win 10%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%District 34: Democrats win <1%District 48: Democrats win <1%District 50: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
26 for a majority1722262829

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
6Frank A Farry 2022Eileen T. Hartnett Albillar vs Frank Farry2 pollsD +0.7R +3.131%Lean R
24Tracy E Pennycuick 2022Chris Thomas vs Tracy Pennycuick1 pollR +2.9R +3.730%Lean R
16Jarrett Charles Coleman 2022Mark Pinsley vs Jarrett Coleman2 pollsR +9.7R +4.425%Lean R
46Camera Bartolotta 2022Jodi Borello (I) vs Camera Bartolotta · Evan Snyder (D) withdrew1 pollR +21.6R +5.321% ILean R
36Ryan P Aument 2022James Malone vs Tom Jones2 pollsR +16.4R +5.820%Lean R
14Nicholas P Miller 2022Nick Miller vs Omy Juriel MaldonadoD +1.9D +6.885%Likely D
40Rosemary Maula Brown 2022Brian A. Wrightson vs Rosemary Brown1 pollR +8.6R +8.710%Likely R
44Katie J Muth 2022Katie Muth vs Melissa C. DicranianD +7.8D +9.392%Likely D
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.