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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

South Dakota House forecast

Republicans win control of the South Dakota House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 70 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 6 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 70On the ballot 70South Dakota SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
7 to 13
Median 10 · 36 for a majority
Favored to flip
6to D1to R
After 2024: 6 D, 64 R
Environment
D +14.6
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

South Dakota House map

District 1: Democrats 13%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats 24%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats >99%District 11: Democrats 60%District 12: Democrats 59%District 13: Democrats 74%District 14: Democrats 63%District 15: Democrats >99%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17: Democrats <1%District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats <1%District 20: Democrats <1%District 21: Democrats <1%District 22: Democrats <1%District 23: Democrats <1%District 24: Democrats <1%District 25: Democrats <1%District 27: Democrats 98%District 29: Democrats <1%District 30: Democrats <1%District 31: Democrats <1%District 32: Democrats 41%District 33: Democrats <1%District 34: Democrats 38%District 35: Democrats <1%District 26A: Democrats >99%District 26B: Democrats <1%District 28A: Democrats 61%District 28B: Democrats <1%13457816171819202122232425272930313233343526A26B28A28B
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 10 D to 58 R
District 10: Democrats win >99%District 10: Democrats win >99%District 26A: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 27: Democrats win 98%District 27: Democrats win 98%District 13: Democrats win 74%District 13: Democrats win 74%District 14: Democrats win 63%District 14: Democrats win 63%District 28A: Democrats win 61%District 11: Democrats win 60%District 11: Democrats win 60%District 12: Democrats win 59%District 12: Democrats win 59%District 32: Democrats win 41%District 32: Democrats win 41%District 34: Democrats win 38%District 34: Democrats win 38%District 7: Democrats win 24%District 7: Democrats win 24%District 1: Democrats win 13%District 1: Democrats win 13%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 21: Democrats win <1%District 21: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 26B: Democrats win <1%District 28B: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 35: Democrats win <1%District 35: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
36 for a majority219

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
122 seatsAmber Arlint, Greg Jamison 2024Stephanie Arne vs Amber Arlint, Kerry LoudenslagerR +5.3D +1.359%Toss up
322 seatsNicole Uhre-Balk, Steve Duffy 2024Nicole Uhre-Balk vs Steff Duffy, Zachary Martin · Samuel Hare Sr. (I)R +1.8R +1.741%Toss up
112 seatsBrian K Mulder, Keri K Weems 2024Sonja Mentzer vs Brian Mulder, Keri WeemsR +9.8D +1.860%Toss up
28AJana Hunt 2024Chastity Jewett vs Jana HuntR +10.3D +1.961%Toss up
342 seatsMike Derby, Heather Baxter 2024Victor Dominguez vs Mike Derby, Becky DruryR +16.5R +2.038%Lean R
142 seatsTaylor Rae Rehfeldt, Tony Kayser 2024Erinn Williams vs Taylor Rehfeldt, Tyler TordsenR +3.5D +2.163%Lean D
132 seatsJohn Hughes, Tony Venhuizen 2024Ali Rae Horsted vs John Hughes, Jack KolbeckR +10.5D +4.174%Lean D
72 seatsRoger Degroot, Mellissa Heermann 2024Blake Stevens vs Mellissa Heerman, Roger DeGrootR +10.5R +4.524%Lean R
12 seatsLogan Manhart, Christopher Reder 2024Courtney Enfield vs Nick Fosness, Daniel KjosR +28.5R +7.813%Likely R
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.