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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Missouri Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Missouri Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 17 of the 34 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 17 carry over until 2028; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 34On the ballot 17Missouri HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
10 to 12
Median 11 · 18 for a majority
Favored to flip
1to D0to R
After 2024: 10 D, 24 R
Environment
D +10.9
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Missouri Senate map

District 1, not up in 2026District 2: Democrats <1%District 3, not up in 2026District 4: Democrats >99%District 5, not up in 2026District 6: Democrats <1%District 7, not up in 2026District 8: Democrats 66%District 9, not up in 2026District 10: Democrats <1%District 11, not up in 2026District 12: Democrats <1%District 13, not up in 2026District 14: Democrats >99%District 15, not up in 2026District 16: Democrats <1%District 17, not up in 2026District 18: Democrats <1%District 19, not up in 2026District 20: Democrats <1%District 21, not up in 2026District 22: Democrats <1%District 23, not up in 2026District 24: Democrats >99%District 25, not up in 2026District 26: Democrats <1%District 27, not up in 2026District 28: Democrats <1%District 29, not up in 2026District 30: Democrats 49%District 31, not up in 2026District 32: Democrats <1%District 33, not up in 2026District 34: Democrats 16%2361012161819202123252627282931323334
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 11 D to 23 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 4: Democrats win >99%District 14: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win 66%District 30: Democrats win 49%District 34: Democrats win 16%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 26: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
18 for a majority81316

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
30Lincoln Hough 2022Betsy Fogle vs Melanie StinnettR +6.7R +0.249%Toss up
8Mike Cierpiot 2022Keri Ingle vs Jon PattersonR +5.6D +2.666%Lean D
34Tony Luetkemeyer 2022Shereka Barnes vs Mike JonesR +14.0R +6.516%Likely R
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.