2026 state legislative forecast
Colorado House forecast
Democrats win control of the Colorado House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 65 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
46 to 51Median 48 · 33 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D0to R
After 2024: 43 D, 22 R
Environment
D +11.0Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Colorado House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 48 D to 17 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | Larry Don Suckla 2024 | Susannah Smith vs Larry Don Suckla | R +9.4 | R +1.3 | 44% | Toss up |
| 39 | Brandi Bradley 2024 | Christian Schilder vs Brandi Bradley | R +8.8 | R +4.8 | 24% | Lean R |
| 15 | Scott Bottoms 2024 | Jeff K. Livingston vs Pricella Tiegen | R +13.6 | R +5.3 | 22% | Lean R |
| 44 | Anthony Hartsook 2024 | Richard Bowness vs Anthony Hartsook | R +10.0 | R +5.5 | 21% | Lean R |
| 51 | Ron Weinberg 2024 | Jacki Marsh vs Amy Parks | D +0.8 | D +6.3 | 84% | Likely D |
| 21 | Mary Bradfield 2024 | Michelle Tweed vs Brenda Miller | R +15.5 | R +6.5 | 17% | Likely R |
| 22 | Ken Degraaf 2024 | Michael Pierson vs Ken DeGraaf | R +10.7 | R +6.5 | 17% | Likely R |
| 55 | Rick Taggart 2024 | Brittni Packard vs Rick Taggart | R +14.8 | R +6.6 | 17% | Likely R |
| 50 | Ryan Gonzalez 2024 | Tommy Butler vs Ryan Gonzalez | R +3.4 | D +8.1 | 89% | Likely D |
| 14 | Rose Pugliese 2024 | Sarah Emery vs Ava Flanell | R +10.7 | R +9.0 | 10% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.