SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Iowa House forecast

Republicans win control of the Iowa House in 93% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 4 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Likely RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 100On the ballot 100Iowa SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
5%D93%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
37 to 49
Median 43 ยท 51 for a majority
Favored to flip
8to D0to R
After 2024: 33 D, 66 R, 1 other
Environment
D +10.4
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Iowa House map

District 1: Democrats 98%District 2: Democrats 6%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats <1%District 11: Democrats <1%District 12: Democrats <1%District 13: Democrats <1%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats <1%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17: Democrats <1%District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats 34%District 20: Democrats 91%District 21: Democrats 5%District 22: Democrats 7%District 23: Democrats <1%District 24: Democrats <1%District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats <1%District 27: Democrats >99%District 28: Democrats 83%District 29: Democrats >99%District 30: Democrats >99%District 31: Democrats >99%District 32: Democrats >99%District 33: Democrats >99%District 34: Democrats >99%District 35: Democrats >99%District 36: Democrats >99%District 37: Democrats <1%District 38: Democrats 11%District 39: Democrats 99%District 40: Democrats 80%District 41: Democrats 91%District 42: Democrats 95%District 43: Democrats 95%District 44: Democrats >99%District 45: Democrats <1%District 46: Democrats 54%District 47: Democrats <1%District 48: Democrats 8%District 49: Democrats >99%District 50: Democrats >99%District 51: Democrats 2%District 52: Democrats 74%District 53: Democrats 19%District 54: Democrats <1%District 55: Democrats <1%District 56: Democrats <1%District 57: Democrats 1%District 58: Democrats <1%District 59: Democrats 78%District 60: Democrats <1%District 61: Democrats >99%District 62: Democrats >99%District 63: Democrats <1%District 64: Democrats <1%District 65: Democrats <1%District 66: Democrats 4%District 67: Democrats <1%District 68: Democrats <1%District 69: Democrats 35%District 70: Democrats <1%District 71: Democrats >99%District 72: Democrats 83%District 73: Democrats >99%District 74: Democrats >99%District 75: Democrats >99%District 76: Democrats 7%District 77: Democrats >99%District 78: Democrats >99%District 79: Democrats >99%District 80: Democrats >99%District 81: Democrats 96%District 82: Democrats 4%District 83: Democrats 28%District 84: Democrats <1%District 85: Democrats >99%District 86: Democrats >99%District 87: Democrats 6%District 88: Democrats <1%District 89: Democrats >99%District 90: Democrats >99%District 91: Democrats 43%District 92: Democrats 10%District 93: Democrats 28%District 94: Democrats 42%District 95: Democrats <1%District 96: Democrats 22%District 97: Democrats >99%District 98: Democrats 94%District 99: Democrats 56%District 100: Democrats <1%3456789101112131516171819202122232425263738474851525354555657585960636465666768697076828487889192959699100
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 43 D to 57 R
District 27: Democrats win >99%District 29: Democrats win >99%District 30: Democrats win >99%District 32: Democrats win >99%District 33: Democrats win >99%District 34: Democrats win >99%District 35: Democrats win >99%District 36: Democrats win >99%District 44: Democrats win >99%District 49: Democrats win >99%District 50: Democrats win >99%District 61: Democrats win >99%District 62: Democrats win >99%District 71: Democrats win >99%District 73: Democrats win >99%District 74: Democrats win >99%District 75: Democrats win >99%District 77: Democrats win >99%District 78: Democrats win >99%District 79: Democrats win >99%District 80: Democrats win >99%District 85: Democrats win >99%District 86: Democrats win >99%District 89: Democrats win >99%District 90: Democrats win >99%District 97: Democrats win >99%District 31: Democrats win >99%District 39: Democrats win 99%District 1: Democrats win 98%District 81: Democrats win 96%District 43: Democrats win 95%District 42: Democrats win 95%District 98: Democrats win 94%District 41: Democrats win 91%District 20: Democrats win 91%District 72: Democrats win 83%District 28: Democrats win 83%District 40: Democrats win 80%District 59: Democrats win 78%District 52: Democrats win 74%District 99: Democrats win 56%District 46: Democrats win 54%District 91: Democrats win 43%District 94: Democrats win 42%District 69: Democrats win 35%District 19: Democrats win 34%District 83: Democrats win 28%District 93: Democrats win 28%District 96: Democrats win 22%District 53: Democrats win 19%District 38: Democrats win 11%District 92: Democrats win 10%District 48: Democrats win 8%District 76: Democrats win 7%District 22: Democrats win 7%District 2: Democrats win 6%District 87: Democrats win 6%District 21: Democrats win 5%District 66: Democrats win 4%District 82: Democrats win 4%District 51: Democrats win 2%District 57: Democrats win 1%District 70: Democrats win <1%District 45: Democrats win <1%District 100: Democrats win <1%District 84: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 65: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 58: Democrats win <1%District 60: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 13: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 26: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 54: Democrats win <1%District 55: Democrats win <1%District 56: Democrats win <1%District 63: Democrats win <1%District 64: Democrats win <1%District 67: Democrats win <1%District 68: Democrats win <1%District 88: Democrats win <1%District 95: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
51 for a majority2639515661

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
99Matthew Rinker 2024Jennifer Kirkman vs Matthew RinkerR +8.4D +0.556%Toss up
46Dan Gehlbach 2024Mandy Newton Rosenow vs Dan GehlbachR +8.8D +0.854%Toss up
91Judd Lawler 2024Mark Divitt vs Judd LawlerR +13.1R +1.043%Toss up
94Mike Vondran 2024Karen Roebuck vs Mike VondranR +8.0R +1.242%Toss up
19Brent Siegrist 2024Benjamin Thomas Larson vs Brent SiegristR +8.7R +2.634%Lean R
69Tom Determann 2024Randy Meier vs Tom DetermannR +12.6R +2.935%Lean R
83Cindy Golding 2024Mike Bergman vs Cindy GoldingR +10.9R +3.928%Lean R
93Gary Mohr 2024Keith Soko vs Gary M. MohrR +8.2R +4.028%Lean R
52David Blom 2024Mike Tupper vs David BlomR +7.4D +4.574%Lean D
96Mark Cisneros 2024Nick Salazar vs Mark CisnerosR +12.8R +4.922%Lean R
59Christian Hermanson 2024Jacob Welper vs Christian HermansonR +5.3D +5.278%Lean D
40Bill Gustoff 2024Heather Sievers vs Bill GustoffR +7.7D +5.780%Lean D
28David Young 2024Tom Walton vs David YoungR +1.8D +6.383%Likely D
53Dean Fisher 2024Berleen Wobeter vs Dean FisherR +19.6R +6.419%Likely R
72Jennifer J Smith 2024Matt Robinson vs Jennifer SmithR +1.4D +6.483%Likely D
38Jon Dunwell 2024Brad Magg vs Matthew OlesonR +25.1R +8.111%Likely R
92Heather Hora 2024Brittany Erickson vs Heather HoraR +15.4R +8.210%Likely R
41Ryan Weldon 2024Molly Buck vs Ryan WeldonR +3.5D +8.491%Likely D
20Josh Turek 2024Eric Armstrong vs Keith JonesR +8.3D +8.891%Likely D
48Chad Behn 2024Benjamin Olsen vs Chad BehnR +18.0R +9.18%Likely R
76Derek Wulf 2024Calvin Horn vs Matt ReisetterR +18.5R +9.57%Likely R
22Samantha Fett 2024Rory Taylor vs Samantha FettR +21.0R +9.67%Likely R
87Jeff Shipley 2024Thomas R. O'Donnell vs Jeff ShipleyR +21.4R +9.76%Likely R
98Monica Kurth 2024Andrew Fitzgerald vs Nathan RamkerR +1.7D +9.894%Likely D
2Robert Henderson 2024Jessica Lopez-Walker vs Robert HendersonR +19.0R +10.06%Likely R
42Heather Matson 2024Amy Tagliareni vs Heather StephensonR +0.7D +10.595%Likely D
21Brooke Boden 2024Spencer A Waugh vs Brooke BodenR +24.0R +10.55%Likely R
43Eddie Andrews 2024Jill Alesch vs Nicole HassoD +4.1D +10.795%Likely D
66Steven P Bradley 2024Matt English vs Steven BradleyR +31.5R +11.34%Likely R
81Daniel Gosa 2024Daniel Gosa vs Dillon FillionD +1.3D +11.796%Likely D
82Bobby Kaufmann 2024James Behrmann vs Bobby KaufmannR +22.7R +11.84%Likely R
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.