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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Florida Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Florida Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 20 of the 40 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 20 carry over until 2028; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 40On the ballot 20Florida HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
10 to 13
Median 12 · 21 for a majority
Favored to flip
3to D0to R
After 2024: 9 D, 24 R
Environment
D +9.4
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Florida Senate map

District 1, not up in 2026District 2: Democrats <1%District 3, not up in 2026District 4: Democrats <1%District 5, not up in 2026District 6: Democrats <1%District 7, not up in 2026District 8: Democrats <1%District 9, not up in 2026District 10: Democrats 69%District 11, not up in 2026District 12: Democrats 1%District 13, not up in 2026District 14: Democrats 64%District 15, not up in 2026District 16: Democrats >99%District 17, not up in 2026District 18: Democrats 44%District 19, not up in 2026District 20: Democrats <1%District 21, not up in 2026District 22: Democrats <1%District 23, not up in 2026District 24: Democrats >99%District 25, not up in 2026District 26: Democrats >99%District 27, not up in 2026District 28: Democrats <1%District 29, not up in 2026District 30: Democrats >99%District 31, not up in 2026District 32: Democrats <1%District 33, not up in 2026District 34: Democrats <1%District 35, not up in 2026District 36: Democrats 20%District 37, not up in 2026District 38: Democrats 71%District 39, not up in 2026District 40: Democrats <1%123467891011121314151617192022232526272829303133363738
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 12 D to 28 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 16: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 30: Democrats win >99%District 38: Democrats win 71%District 10: Democrats win 69%District 14: Democrats win 64%District 18: Democrats win 44%District 36: Democrats win 20%District 12: Democrats win 1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%District 34: Democrats win <1%District 40: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
21 for a majority61418

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
18Nick Diceglie 2022Karla Kemp vs Nick DiCeglieR +10.4R +1.144%Toss up
14Jay Collins 2022Brian Nathan vs Josie TomkowR +8.4D +2.364%Lean D
10Jason Brodeur 2022John Lowndes vs Jason BrodeurR +6.5D +3.469%Lean D
38Alexis Maria Calatayud 2022Richard Lamondin Jr. vs Alexis Maria Calatayud · Jeffrey "Doc" Solomon (I)R +6.6D +3.471%Lean D
36Ileana Garcia 2022George Lavin vs Ileana GarciaR +15.3R +5.720%Lean R
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.