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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

South Carolina House forecast

Republicans win control of the South Carolina House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 124 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 4 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 124On the ballot 124All chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
38 to 48
Median 43 ยท 63 for a majority
Favored to flip
6to D0to R
After 2024: 36 D, 88 R
Environment
D +9.6
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

South Carolina House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats <1%District 11: Democrats <1%District 12: Democrats 83%District 13: Democrats <1%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats >99%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17: Democrats <1%District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats 9%District 20: Democrats <1%District 21: Democrats <1%District 22: Democrats 19%District 23: Democrats >99%District 24: Democrats 25%District 25: Democrats >99%District 26: Democrats 3%District 27: Democrats 10%District 28: Democrats <1%District 29: Democrats <1%District 30: Democrats <1%District 31: Democrats >99%District 32: Democrats 2%District 33: Democrats <1%District 34: Democrats <1%District 35: Democrats <1%District 36: Democrats <1%District 37: Democrats <1%District 38: Democrats <1%District 39: Democrats <1%District 40: Democrats <1%District 41: Democrats >99%District 42: Democrats <1%District 43: Democrats <1%District 44: Democrats 6%District 45: Democrats <1%District 46: Democrats 18%District 47: Democrats <1%District 48: Democrats 1%District 49: Democrats >99%District 50: Democrats 99%District 51: Democrats >99%District 52: Democrats >99%District 53: Democrats <1%District 54: Democrats >99%District 55: Democrats >99%District 56: Democrats <1%District 57: Democrats 98%District 58: Democrats <1%District 59: Democrats >99%District 60: Democrats <1%District 61: Democrats <1%District 62: Democrats >99%District 63: Democrats <1%District 64: Democrats 52%District 65: Democrats <1%District 66: Democrats 29%District 67: Democrats 8%District 68: Democrats <1%District 69: Democrats <1%District 70: Democrats >99%District 71: Democrats 1%District 72: Democrats >99%District 73: Democrats >99%District 74: Democrats >99%District 75: Democrats >99%District 76: Democrats >99%District 77: Democrats >99%District 78: Democrats >99%District 79: Democrats >99%District 80: Democrats <1%District 81: Democrats <1%District 82: Democrats 97%District 83: Democrats <1%District 84: Democrats <1%District 85: Democrats 3%District 86: Democrats <1%District 87: Democrats <1%District 88: Democrats <1%District 89: Democrats 14%District 90: Democrats >99%District 91: Democrats 93%District 92: Democrats 36%District 93: Democrats >99%District 94: Democrats 12%District 95: Democrats >99%District 96: Democrats <1%District 97: Democrats <1%District 98: Democrats 43%District 99: Democrats 1%District 100: Democrats 3%District 101: Democrats >99%District 102: Democrats 80%District 103: Democrats >99%District 104: Democrats <1%District 105: Democrats <1%District 106: Democrats <1%District 107: Democrats <1%District 108: Democrats <1%District 109: Democrats >99%District 110: Democrats 64%District 111: Democrats >99%District 112: Democrats 12%District 113: Democrats >99%District 114: Democrats 7%District 115: Democrats 98%District 116: Democrats 89%District 117: Democrats 4%District 118: Democrats <1%District 119: Democrats >99%District 120: Democrats <1%District 121: Democrats >99%District 122: Democrats 72%District 123: Democrats 16%District 124: Democrats 3%124567910111213141516293034394041424344455051525354555657596062636465676870818283848586879091929394959799100101102103104105106107108109114115116117118119120121122123
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 43 D to 81 R
District 15: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win >99%District 25: Democrats win >99%District 31: Democrats win >99%District 49: Democrats win >99%District 51: Democrats win >99%District 52: Democrats win >99%District 54: Democrats win >99%District 55: Democrats win >99%District 59: Democrats win >99%District 62: Democrats win >99%District 70: Democrats win >99%District 72: Democrats win >99%District 73: Democrats win >99%District 74: Democrats win >99%District 76: Democrats win >99%District 77: Democrats win >99%District 78: Democrats win >99%District 79: Democrats win >99%District 90: Democrats win >99%District 95: Democrats win >99%District 101: Democrats win >99%District 103: Democrats win >99%District 109: Democrats win >99%District 111: Democrats win >99%District 113: Democrats win >99%District 121: Democrats win >99%District 41: Democrats win >99%District 119: Democrats win >99%District 75: Democrats win >99%District 93: Democrats win >99%District 50: Democrats win 99%District 57: Democrats win 98%District 115: Democrats win 98%District 82: Democrats win 97%District 91: Democrats win 93%District 116: Democrats win 89%District 12: Democrats win 83%District 102: Democrats win 80%District 122: Democrats win 72%District 110: Democrats win 64%District 64: Democrats win 52%District 98: Democrats win 43%District 92: Democrats win 36%District 66: Democrats win 29%District 24: Democrats win 25%District 22: Democrats win 19%District 46: Democrats win 18%District 123: Democrats win 16%District 89: Democrats win 14%District 112: Democrats win 12%District 94: Democrats win 12%District 27: Democrats win 10%District 19: Democrats win 9%District 67: Democrats win 8%District 114: Democrats win 7%District 44: Democrats win 6%District 117: Democrats win 4%District 85: Democrats win 3%District 124: Democrats win 3%District 26: Democrats win 3%District 100: Democrats win 3%District 32: Democrats win 2%District 48: Democrats win 1%District 71: Democrats win 1%District 99: Democrats win 1%District 80: Democrats win <1%District 118: Democrats win <1%District 45: Democrats win <1%District 60: Democrats win <1%District 63: Democrats win <1%District 34: Democrats win <1%District 107: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 21: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 69: Democrats win <1%District 97: Democrats win <1%District 120: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 13: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 35: Democrats win <1%District 36: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 38: Democrats win <1%District 39: Democrats win <1%District 40: Democrats win <1%District 42: Democrats win <1%District 43: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 53: Democrats win <1%District 56: Democrats win <1%District 58: Democrats win <1%District 61: Democrats win <1%District 65: Democrats win <1%District 68: Democrats win <1%District 81: Democrats win <1%District 83: Democrats win <1%District 84: Democrats win <1%District 86: Democrats win <1%District 87: Democrats win <1%District 88: Democrats win <1%District 96: Democrats win <1%District 104: Democrats win <1%District 105: Democrats win <1%District 106: Democrats win <1%District 108: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
63 for a majority2946636465

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
64Fawn Pedalino 2024Michele Demery vs Fawn PedalinoR +7.9R +0.152%Toss up
98Chris Murphy 2024Sonja Ogletree Satani vs Greg FordR +7.7R +1.243%Toss up
92Brandon Cox 2024Byron Walters vs Brandon CoxR +11.8R +2.236%Lean R
110Tom Hartnett 2024KJ Atwood vs Tom HartnettR +2.5D +2.464%Lean D
122Bill Hager 2024Korey Williams vs Bill HagerR +4.4D +3.872%Lean D
66Jackie Terribile 2024Heather Hart vs Jackie TerribileR +13.5R +3.929%Lean R
24Bruce Bannister 2024Caroline Avinger vs Bruce BannisterR +7.1R +4.525%Lean R
102Harriet Holman 2024Montez Aiken vs Harriet HolmanR +4.6D +5.480%Lean D
12Daniel Gibson 2024Jumelle Brooks vs Daniel GibsonR +2.8D +6.083%Lean D
46Heath Sessions 2024Omar L McCrorey vs Heath SessionsR +11.1R +6.018%Likely R
22Paul Wickensimer 2024Josh Kendrick vs Paul WickensimerR +10.9R +6.019%Likely R
123Jeff Bradley 2024Ann C Shippy vs Jeff BradleyR +12.5R +6.716%Likely R
89Micah Caskey 2024Joe Madge vs Micah CaskeyR +12.4R +7.014%Likely R
112Joe Bustos 2024Jenna Arsenault vs Joe BustosR +12.6R +7.912%Likely R
94Gil Gatch 2024Sally Hebert vs Gil GatchR +17.6R +8.112%Likely R
116James Teeple 2024Clay Middleton vs James E TeepleR +0.6D +8.189%Likely D
27David Vaughan 2024John MacCarthy vs David VaughanR +16.0R +8.610%Likely R
19Patrick Haddon 2024Rachel Smith vs Patrick B HaddonR +18.1R +8.69%Likely R
67Murrell Smith 2024Lisa Davey vs Murrell SmithR +18.9R +9.48%Likely R
91Lonnie Hosey 2024Lonnie Hosey vs Daniel AlexanderR +3.0D +9.893%Likely D
114Gary Brewer 2024Kelly Hough vs Gary BrewerR +16.5R +10.07%Likely R
44Mike Neese 2024Katie Crosby vs Mike NeeseR +17.5R +10.46%Likely R
85Jay Kilmartin 2024Steven J Asbill Jr vs Jay KilmartinR +21.2R +11.83%Likely R
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.