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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Alaska Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Alaska Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 10 of the 20 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 10 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 20On the ballot 10Alaska HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
9 to 9
Median 9 · 11 for a majority
Favored to flip
0to D0to R
After 2024: 9 D, 11 R
Environment
D +8.4
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Alaska Senate map

District A: Democrats <1%District C: Democrats <1%District E: Democrats <1%District G: Democrats >99%District I: Democrats >99%District K: Democrats >99%District M: Democrats <1%District O: Democrats <1%District Q: Democrats <1%District S: Democrats 97%District B, not up in 2026District D, not up in 2026District F, not up in 2026District H, not up in 2026District J, not up in 2026District L, not up in 2026District N, not up in 2026District P, not up in 2026District R, not up in 2026District T, not up in 2026ACEIKMOQSBDNRT
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 9 D to 11 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict G: Democrats win >99%District I: Democrats win >99%District K: Democrats win >99%District S: Democrats win 97%District A: Democrats win <1%District C: Democrats win <1%District E: Democrats win <1%District M: Democrats win <1%District O: Democrats win <1%District Q: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
11 for a majority6911

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
No districts match.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.