2026 state legislative forecast
Nevada Assembly forecast
Democrats win control of the Nevada Assembly in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 42 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
30 to 35Median 33 · 22 for a majority
Favored to flip
6to D0to R
After 2024: 27 D, 15 R
Environment
D +14.9Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Nevada Assembly map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 32 D to 10 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Assembly district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rich Delong 2024 | Sam Baugh vs Richard DeLong | R +6.8 | D +0.7 | 55% | Toss up |
| 23 | Danielle Gallant 2024 | Jan Allen Aspelund vs Denise Daniels Fanning | R +17.0 | R +2.1 | 38% | Lean R |
| 22 | Melissa Hardy 2024 | Shenea Booth vs Melissa Hardy | R +11.3 | D +3.7 | 72% | Lean D |
| 40 | Philip "Pk" O'Neill 2024 | Oscar Fuentes vs Julie A. Butler | R +15.3 | R +4.2 | 25% | Lean R |
| 13 | Brian Hibbetts 2024 | Daniel Andrews vs Brian Hibbetts | R +8.6 | D +5.2 | 77% | Lean D |
| 31 | Jill Dickman 2024 | Neal Schwartz vs Jill Dickman | R +16.2 | R +6.1 | 18% | Likely R |
| 2 | Heidi Kasama 2024 | Kamilah Bywaters vs Drew Teitelbaum | R +5.7 | D +6.2 | 82% | Likely D |
| 4 | Lisa Cole 2024 | Eileen Eady vs Lisa Cole | R +8.7 | D +6.3 | 81% | Likely D |
| 35 | Rebecca Edgeworth 2024 | Joe Spica vs Rebecca Edgeworth | R +3.1 | D +9.1 | 92% | Likely D |
| 36 | Gregory Hafen Ii 2024 | Jon Penn Junejo vs Gregory T. Hafen II | R +24.1 | R +11.2 | 5% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.