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NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

North Dakota House forecast

Republicans win control of the North Dakota House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 50 of the 94 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 44 carry over until 2028; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 94On the ballot 50North Dakota SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
9 to 15
Median 11 · 48 for a majority
Favored to flip
1to D0to R
After 2024: 9 D, 83 R
Environment
D +14.5
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

North Dakota House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2, not up in 2026District 3: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6, not up in 2026District 7: Democrats <1%District 8, not up in 2026District 9: Democrats <1%District 10, not up in 2026District 11: Democrats >99%District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats 16%District 14, not up in 2026District 15: Democrats <1%District 16, not up in 2026District 17: Democrats 2%District 18, not up in 2026District 19: Democrats <1%District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats >99%District 22, not up in 2026District 23: Democrats <1%District 24, not up in 2026District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats <1%District 27: Democrats <1%District 28, not up in 2026District 29: Democrats <1%District 30, not up in 2026District 31: Democrats <1%District 32, not up in 2026District 33: Democrats <1%District 34, not up in 2026District 35: Democrats 14%District 36, not up in 2026District 37: Democrats <1%District 38, not up in 2026District 39: Democrats <1%District 40, not up in 2026District 41: Democrats 49%District 42: Democrats 30%District 43: Democrats 94%District 44, not up in 2026District 45: Democrats 38%District 46, not up in 2026District 47: Democrats <1%District 4A, not up in 2026District 4B, not up in 2026123567891214151718192023242526282930313334353637383940474A4B
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 12 D to 82 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 11: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 43: Democrats win 94%District 43: Democrats win 94%District 41: Democrats win 49%District 41: Democrats win 49%District 45: Democrats win 38%District 45: Democrats win 38%District 42: Democrats win 30%District 13: Democrats win 16%District 13: Democrats win 16%District 35: Democrats win 14%District 35: Democrats win 14%District 17: Democrats win 2%District 17: Democrats win 2%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 26: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 39: Democrats win <1%District 39: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
48 for a majority521

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
412 seatsMichelle Strinden, Jorin James Johnson 2022Chris Tiongson, Stacy Heidenreich vs Jennifer Benson, Rich SlagleR +17.9R +0.449%Toss up
452 seatsCarrie Mcleod, Scott Wagner 2022Don Lippert, Ross Lockhart vs Carrie McLeod, Scott WagnerR +18.7R +1.638%Toss up
42Doug Osowski 2024Nicole Derenne vs Connie OsowskiR +19.2R +3.730%Lean R
132 seatsAusten Schauer, Jim Jonas 2022Maggi Gadaire, Brenda Jo Gillund vs Austen Schauer, Jim JonasR +19.6R +6.816%Likely R
352 seatsBob Martinson, Karen Karls 2022Taylor Johnson, Lynne M Lafer-Halvorson vs Karen Karls, Bob MartinsonR +22.6R +7.314%Likely R
432 seatsEric J Murphy, Zachary Ista 2022Lukas Arthur Maughan, Tyler York vs Jill T Chandler, Mike HolmesR +11.9D +10.394%Likely D
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.