2026 state legislative forecast
Oregon House forecast
Democrats win control of the Oregon House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 60 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
38 to 41Median 39 · 31 for a majority
Favored to flip
3to D0to R
After 2024: 32 D, 24 R, 4 other
Environment
D +10.3Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Oregon House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 39 D to 21 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shelly Boshart Davis 2024 | Joanna Robinson vs Shelly Boshart Davis | R +0.9 | R +3.6 | 30% | Lean R |
| 12 | Darin Harbick 2024 | Amber Smith vs Darin Harbick | R +7.4 | R +4.7 | 23% | Lean R |
| 6 | Kim Wallan 2024 | John Holm vs Kim Wallan | R +10.6 | R +4.8 | 22% | Lean R |
| 52 | Jeff Helfrich 2024 | Hank Sanders vs Scott Hege | R +7.9 | D +5.6 | 81% | Lean D |
| 32 | Cyrus B Javadi 2024 | Cyrus Javadi vs Max Sherman | D +5.4 | D +6.6 | 83% | Likely D |
| 31 | Darcey Edwards 2024 | Tom Forest vs Darcey Edwards | R +14.4 | R +8.0 | 11% | Likely R |
| 48 | Hoa H Nguyen 2024 | Lamar Wise vs Andrew Morrison | R +17.2 | D +8.8 | 90% | Likely D |
| 21 | Kevin L Mannix 2024 | Michael Welsh vs Kevin Mannix | D +5.4 | D +10.6 | 94% | Likely D |
| 51 | Christine Drazan 2024 | Darla Mead vs Matt Bunch | R +19.4 | R +11.7 | 4% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.