2026 state legislative forecast
New Hampshire House forecast
Democrats win control of the New Hampshire House in 99% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 400 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 19 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
228 to 286Median 257 ยท 201 for a majority
Favored to flip
40to D0to R
After 2024: 178 D, 221 R, 1 other
Environment
D +12.4Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
New Hampshire House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 257 D to 143 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COOS 007 | Lori Korzen 2024 | Corinne E. Cascadden vs Lori Korzen | R +18.2 | D +0.0 | 51% | Toss up |
| ROCKINGHAM 0167 seats | Kristine Perez, David Lundgren, Tom Dolan, Ron Dunn, Doug Thomas, Sherman Packard, Wayne D Macdonald 2024 | Edward 'Ted' Combes, Jane Cooper, Bob Cote, Isaac Fernandez, Michela Hites, Neil Marceau, Paul Skudlarek vs Gregory G. Carson, Ron Dunn, David C. Lundgren, Wayne D. MacDonald, Jeffrey McGraw, Sherman Packard, Kristine Perez | R +4.8 | D +0.6 | 55% | Toss up |
| CHESHIRE 011 | Denis Vincent Murphy Ii 2024 | Lindseigh Picard vs Denis Vincent Murphy, II | R +11.4 | D +0.7 | 53% | Toss up |
| BELKNAP 0064 seats | Harry H Bean, David Nagel, Russell Dumais, Glen Aldrich 2024 | Allan Frank, Bob McLean, David Nagel, Lisa Rivard vs Glen Aldrich, Priscilla M. Bean, Colleen M. Harkey, Jade Wood | R +9.8 | R +0.8 | 45% | Toss up |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0303 seats | Jim Creighton, Riche Colcombe, Jim Fedolfi 2024 | W. Gordon Allen, William Bryk, Janet McEwen vs Larry Baker, Austin Cottle, Tim Morehouse | R +12.0 | R +1.1 | 44% | Toss up |
| BELKNAP 001 | Tom Ploszaj 2024 | Amber Schaefer vs Tom Ploszaj | R +7.3 | D +1.2 | 58% | Toss up |
| MERRIMACK 0042 seats | Michael Moffett, Jose E Cambrils 2024 | Cody York vs Jose E. Cambrils, Michael Moffett | R +12.1 | D +1.3 | 57% | Toss up |
| SULLIVAN 007 | Margaret M Drye 2024 | Lawrence A. Schissel vs Margaret M. Drye | R +19.5 | R +1.4 | 43% | Toss up |
| STRAFFORD 006 | Denise Dede-Poulin 2024 | Daniel Fitzpatrick vs Denise DeDe-Poulin | R +16.7 | D +1.6 | 59% | Toss up |
| HILLSBOROUGH 045 | Jack Flanagan 2024 | Jerry Roche vs Jack B. Flanagan | R +19.8 | R +1.6 | 41% | Toss up |
| MERRIMACK 0032 seats | Bryan Morse, Ernesto L Gonzalez 2024 | Scott A. Burns, Vivian Marie Hall vs Werner D. Horn, Michael Visconti | R +16.3 | R +1.7 | 41% | Toss up |
| CHESHIRE 012 | Dick H Thackston Iii 2024 | Kristan Tilton vs Richard "Dick" Thackston III | R +11.4 | D +1.7 | 60% | Toss up |
| COOS 004 | Seth King 2024 | David Holmander vs Seth King ยท Scott McKinnon Black (I) | R +9.9 | D +1.7 | 60% | Toss up |
| MERRIMACK 0104 seats | Thomas C Walsh, John A Leavitt, Stephen E Boyd, Yury Polozov 2024 | Lucas J. Coriaty, Ricky Gurung, William Patrick Lynch, Germano Martins vs Stephen E. Boyd, Pamela McMahon, Yury Polozov, Thomas C. Walsh | R +6.4 | D +1.8 | 62% | Toss up |
| ROCKINGHAM 0052 seats | Mark Vallone, Michael Vose 2024 | Joe Perry, Mark Vallone vs Trevor Morse, John Scully | R +11.7 | D +1.8 | 61% | Toss up |
| ROCKINGHAM 019 | Susan M Porcelli 2024 | Wendy Larson vs Susan M. Porcelli | R +6.1 | D +1.9 | 61% | Toss up |
| CHESHIRE 0182 seats | Rita Mattson, Jim Qualey 2024 | Allen Davis, Rory Lovett Sherman vs Rita Mattson, Jim Qualey | R +10.1 | D +2.0 | 63% | Toss up |
| MERRIMACK 0052 seats | Louise Andrus, Deborah Aylward 2024 | Lorna Carlisle, Thomas Ware vs Louise Andrus, Deborah Aylward | R +15.0 | R +2.1 | 37% | Lean R |
| MERRIMACK 001 | Rick Devoid 2024 | Lorrie Carey vs Rick Devoid | R +12.9 | D +2.3 | 64% | Lean D |
| ROCKINGHAM 040 | Linda Mcgrath 2024 | Justin Gregory Packard vs Linda McGrath | R +21.0 | R +2.9 | 31% | Lean R |
| STRAFFORD 007 | Aidan Ankarberg 2024 | John Larochelle vs Eric Bourgeois | R +21.1 | R +3.0 | 35% | Lean R |
| BELKNAP 0022 seats | Matt Coker, Matthew Lunney 2024 | Dean S.T. Cascadden, Seth Wheeler vs Matthew Coker, Scott Wallace | R +2.5 | D +3.2 | 67% | Lean D |
| BELKNAP 0054 seats | Mike Bordes, Sheri Minor, Steven T Bogert, Charlie St Clair 2024 | Marcia Hayward, Eric Hoffman, Lois A. Kessin, Denise Riley vs Mike Bordes, Timothy Minor, Cody Pfaff, Paul Rossi ยท Charlie St. Clair (D) withdrew | R +9.1 | D +3.6 | 72% | Lean D |
| CHESHIRE 017 | Jennifer Rhodes 2024 | Jennie Gomarlo vs Jennifer Rhodes | R +18.0 | R +3.7 | 29% | Lean R |
| MERRIMACK 011 | Matthew Pitaro 2024 | Al Turcotte vs Matthew Pitaro | R +14.5 | D +3.8 | 71% | Lean D |
| STRAFFORD 008 | Samuel Farrington 2024 | Ty Wyman vs David Walker | R +21.9 | R +3.8 | 29% | Lean R |
| GRAFTON 0013 seats | Darrell A Louis, Joseph Barton, Calvin Beaulier 2024 | Joseph Goderic Beaulieu, Timothy T. Egan, Linda Massimilla vs Joseph Barton, Calvin Beaulier, Andrew Dorsett | R +6.2 | D +4.0 | 72% | Lean D |
| STRAFFORD 0023 seats | Glenn Bailey, Michael Granger, Claudine R Burnham 2024 | Larry Brown vs Glenn Bailey, Michael Granger, Mark F. Racic ยท Dwight Harvey (D) withdrew | R +16.0 | R +4.0 | 27% | Lean R |
| ROCKINGHAM 035 | Julius F Soti 2024 | Michelle Stith vs Julius F. Soti | R +22.2 | R +4.2 | 26% | Lean R |
| ROCKINGHAM 036 | Jd Bernardy 2024 | Paul Bonzani vs J D Bernardy | D +2.4 | D +4.2 | 72% | Lean D |
| CARROLL 0032 seats | Karel A Crawford, Joseph Hamblen 2024 | Todd Milliken, Bryan Randolph vs Richard R. Brown, Karel A. Crawford | R +8.7 | D +4.7 | 77% | Lean D |
| CARROLL 0082 seats | Richard R Brown, Brian R Taylor 2024 | James Pittman, George Randell vs Colin Mitchell, Tammy Simmons Garthwaite ยท George Randell (I) | R +16.5 | R +5.0 | 23% | Lean R |
| MERRIMACK 0272 seats | Carol Mcguire, Ray Plante 2024 | Harry Kozlowski, Phillip James Walker vs Raymond Plante, Vanessa Poulin | R +18.2 | R +5.1 | 20% | Lean R |
| GRAFTON 006 | Linda Franz 2024 | Paul J. Goundrey vs Linda Franz | R +4.7 | D +5.1 | 79% | Lean D |
| GRAFTON 011 | Lex Berezhny 2024 | Roger B. Larochelle, Jr. vs Jake Abuhav | R +17.3 | R +5.2 | 21% | Lean R |
| SULLIVAN 005 | George C Grant 2024 | Judith M. Thackaberry vs George C. Grant | R +12.8 | D +5.5 | 79% | Lean D |
| ROCKINGHAM 0203 seats | Robert Harb, Charles R Melvin Sr, James Summers 2024 | Rick Faulconer vs Robert D. Harb, Charles R. Melvin, Sr., James Summers | R +18.3 | R +5.9 | 19% | Lean R |
| ROCKINGHAM 0174 seats | Charles E Mcmahon, Katelyn Kuttab, Daniel Popovici-Muller, Bob Lynn 2024 | Irene L. Harnden, David Martsolf, Darryn E. Remillard, Matthew Swoboda vs Katelyn Kuttab, Bob Lynn, Charles E. McMahon, Daniel Popovici-Muller | R +11.9 | R +5.9 | 20% | Lean R |
| STRAFFORD 0012 seats | Sue Delemus, Robley Hall 2024 | Brian Beaverstock, Jimmy Bourque vs W. Packy Campbell, Andy Dow | R +22.7 | R +5.9 | 20% | Lean R |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0362 seats | Diane Pauer, John W Suiter 2024 | Michael Pellerito, Stephen Spratt vs Diane Pauer, John W. Suiter | R +3.6 | D +6.0 | 82% | Likely D |
| GRAFTON 010 | John Sellers 2024 | Marc E. Bourassa vs Steven Coffill | R +4.6 | D +6.2 | 82% | Likely D |
| BELKNAP 003 | Juliet Harvey-Bolia 2024 | William Lawrence, Jr. vs Steven Bunce | R +24.5 | R +6.6 | 17% | Likely R |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0202 seats | Alissandra Murray, Pierre Dupont 2024 | Pauline Martineau, Alissandra Murray vs Pierre Dupont, Jose R. Marte | R +11.6 | D +6.7 | 84% | Likely D |
| HILLSBOROUGH 037 | Megan A Murray 2024 | Megan A. Murray vs Michael "Mike" Thornton ยท Daryl D'Angelo (I) | R +11.6 | D +6.7 | 85% | Likely D |
| ROCKINGHAM 006 | Eric S Turer 2024 | Eric S. Turer vs Allen W. Cook | R +11.2 | D +7.2 | 86% | Likely D |
| ROCKINGHAM 0013 seats | Scott R Bryer, James Guzofski, Paul D Tudor 2024 | Donna Danis, Hal Rafter, Pamela Sanderson vs Scott R. Bryer, James Guzofski, Paul D. Tudor | R +4.2 | D +7.2 | 86% | Likely D |
| CARROLL 007 | Glenn Cordelli 2024 | Karen Burnett-Kurie vs Dale Fincher | R +25.6 | R +7.8 | 12% | Likely R |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0142 seats | Richard W Lascelles, Raymond C Peeples Jr 2024 | Ray Ealy, Paula Paciulan vs Richard W. Lascelles, Raymond C. Peeples, Jr. | R +10.8 | R +7.8 | 12% | Likely R |
| MERRIMACK 025 | James Thibault 2024 | Erica Russell vs James Thibault | R +18.6 | R +7.8 | 12% | Likely R |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0442 seats | Lisa Mazur, Ross Berry 2024 | Chris Conroy, Robert "Bob" Jones vs Ross Berry, Lisa Mazur | R +25.8 | R +7.9 | 10% | Likely R |
| STRAFFORD 018 | Michael Harrington 2024 | Thom Flynn vs Michael Harrington | R +26.0 | R +8.1 | 12% | Likely R |
| ROCKINGHAM 0152 seats | Joe Guthrie, Lilli Walsh 2024 | Lisa DeMio, Laurie A. Warnock vs Joseph "Joe" Guthrie, Lilli Walsh | R +19.0 | R +8.2 | 11% | Likely R |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0294 seats | Joe Alexander, Sheila Seidel, Sherri Reinfurt, Henry R Giasson Iii 2024 | Karyn Battey, Christopher Calhoun, Judi L. Lanza, Marie B. Morgan vs Joe Alexander Jr., Shanun R. Carey, Henry R. Giasson III, Sherri Reinfurt | R +3.0 | D +8.3 | 88% | Likely D |
| CHESHIRE 0102 seats | Barry Faulkner, Sly Karasinski 2024 | Alan Gross, Steve Russell vs Sly Karasinski, Michael R. York | R +4.5 | D +8.5 | 90% | Likely D |
| BELKNAP 0082 seats | Douglas Trottier, Lisa M Freeman 2024 | Donald J. Giguere, Don House vs Lisa M. Freeman, Cameron Thompson | R +18.5 | R +8.7 | 10% | Likely R |
| MERRIMACK 0122 seats | Peter L Mehegan, Brian Seaworth 2024 | Mariana R. Beer, Kenneth Nivison vs Peter L. Mehegan, Brian Seaworth | R +1.0 | D +8.8 | 92% | Likely D |
| ROCKINGHAM 0023 seats | Jason Osborne, James Spillane, Kevin Verville 2024 | Kendra Cohen, Judith Lindsey, Robert Prieto vs Will Huebner, Jason Osborne, James Spillane | R +19.2 | R +9.0 | 9% | Likely R |
| MERRIMACK 026 | Alvin B See 2024 | Harold D. Tuttle vs Alvin B. See | R +26.8 | R +9.0 | 8% | Likely R |
| COOS 0052 seats | Brian L Valerino, Peter Morency 2024 | Cassie Mason (I) vs Mark Evans, Peter Morency | R +3.9 | R +9.1 | 8% I | Likely R |
| STRAFFORD 0193 seats | David Walker, Kelley Potenza, John Larochelle 2024 | Jonathan J. King, Justin McIsaac, Nick Paul vs Samuel Farrington, James Higginbottom, Jonathan Verbicky | R +2.5 | D +9.4 | 92% | Likely D |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0323 seats | Diane Kelley, Shane Sirois, Jim Kofalt 2024 | Richard Swanson, Kermit Williams vs Diane Kelley, Jim Kofalt, Shane Sirois | R +20.4 | R +9.5 | 7% | Likely R |
| CHESHIRE 013 | Richard Ames 2024 | Tom Ahlborn-Hsu vs Matthew John Santonastaso | R +8.7 | D +9.7 | 93% | Likely D |
| SULLIVAN 0082 seats | Hope Damon, Michael Aron 2024 | Hope Damon, Samuel Deering vs Catherine Peschke, Jonathan F. Stone | R +4.9 | D +9.7 | 92% | Likely D |
| STRAFFORD 009 | Amy Malone 2024 | Nevin Dexter vs Robert Qua | R +8.6 | D +9.7 | 92% | Likely D |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0392 seats | Mark Warden, Jonathan Morton 2024 | Ellen A. Boudreau, Thomas Katsiantonis vs Jon DiPietro, William Infantine | R +1.4 | D +9.8 | 94% | Likely D |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0423 seats | Keith Ammon, Lisa Cm Post, Gerald Griffin 2024 | Teri Harkins, Lee Nyquist, Peter Ryder vs Gerald "Gerry" Griffin, Rob Lovett, Lisa C.M. Post | D +0.4 | D +9.8 | 94% | Likely D |
| GRAFTON 0052 seats | Rick Ladd, Marie L Bjelobrk 2024 | Dustin Vigneault vs Greg Mathieson, Marie Louise Bjelobrk | R +19.8 | R +10.0 | 6% | Likely R |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0182 seats | Jessica Grill, Steven Kesselring 2024 | Jessica Grill, Jim Normand vs Steven Kesselring | R +8.2 | D +10.2 | 94% | Likely D |
| CARROLL 0062 seats | John T Macdonald, Katy Peternel 2024 | Deirdre McEachern, Phoebe VanScoy-Giessler vs Tim Bauman, John T. MacDonald | R +2.5 | R +10.3 | 6% | Likely R |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0136 seats | Cathy Kenny, Dillon Dumont, Andrew Prout, Jordan G Ulery, Robert Wherry, Jeremy Slottje 2024 | Luan Baci, James Battis, Jim Caron, Kate Messner, Don Staveley vs Dillon Dumont, Cathy Kenny, Andrew Prout, Tom Trost, Jordan G. Ulery, Robert James Wherry III ยท C. Mark DelSesto (I) | R +11.0 | R +10.5 | 6% | Likely R |
| ROCKINGHAM 0312 seats | Jess Edwards, Terry Roy 2024 | Peter Boudreau, Yaz Safarzadeh vs Jess Edwards, Terry Roy | R +18.8 | R +10.8 | 5% | Likely R |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0128 seats | Maureen Mooney, Julie Miles, Nancy A Murphy, Bill Boyd, Rosemarie Rung, Adam Presa, Jeanine Notter, Wendy En Thomas 2024 | Rebecca Boutin, Matthew Brown, Nancy A. Murphy, Marc Nozell, Mary Beth Raven, Heather Robitaille, Rosemarie Rung, Wendy E.N. Thomas vs Kevin Francis Ballantine, Bill Boyd, Julie Miles, Maureen Mooney, Jeanine Notter, Adam Presa, Kevin Southwick, Wolfram von Schoen ยท Kyle Haines (I) | D +2.3 | D +11.2 | 95% | Likely D |
| COOS 006 | Michael P Murphy 2024 | Richard Umiker vs Robert Gargano | D +7.8 | D +11.5 | 96% | Likely D |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0027 seats | Linda Gould, Kristin Noble, Ted Gorski, Brian Labrie, Catherine A Rombeau, Loren Foxx, John Schneller 2024 | Todd C. Fahey, John K. Fitzgerald, Jeffrey L. Kerr, Ryan Nugent, Sheila Quick, Catherine A. Rombeau, Geoffrey Wellington vs Matthew Castanien, Phil Greazzo, Peter Kujawski, Brian Labrie, Pat MacMonagle, Kristin Noble, John Schneller | D +3.3 | D +11.7 | 96% | Likely D |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0282 seats | Keith Erf, Travis Corcoran 2024 | David E. Erikson, Benson H. Goodwin vs Travis Corcoran, Keith Erf | R +22.1 | R +11.7 | 4% | Likely R |
| MERRIMACK 023 | Merryl Gibbs 2024 | Kristopher Levesque vs Andrew Georgevits | R +6.4 | D +11.9 | 96% | Likely D |
| HILLSBOROUGH 0222 seats | Patricia Cornell, Nicole Leapley 2024 | Greg Erskine, Nicole Leapley vs Max Abramson, Brittany Ping | R +6.4 | D +12.0 | 96% | Likely D |
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 17%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll | 2026-09-21 | 49 | 39 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.