2026 state legislative forecast
New York Senate forecast
Democrats win control of the New York Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 63 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 3 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
48 to 54Median 51 · 32 for a majority
Favored to flip
11to D0to R
After 2024: 41 D, 22 R
Environment
D +13.3Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
New York Senate map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 51 D to 12 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Steve Chan 2024 | Larry He vs Steve Chan | R +16.4 | D +0.2 | 51% | Toss up |
| 62 | Robert G Ortt 2024 | Thomas E. Arida vs Robert G. Ortt | R +15.2 | R +2.0 | 38% | Lean R |
| 51 | Peter Oberacker 2024 | Michele Frazier vs Christopher W. Tague | R +2.6 | D +2.2 | 63% | Lean D |
| 2 | Not on file 2022 | Harjot Singh vs Mario R. Mattera | R +7.2 | D +4.3 | 75% | Lean D |
| 38 | Bill Weber 2024 | Joseph W. Rand vs Bill Weber | R +8.9 | D +5.2 | 78% | Lean D |
| 5 | Steven D Rhoads 2024 | Andrew Piddoubny vs Steven D. Rhoads | R +14.5 | R +5.5 | 21% | Lean R |
| 7 | Jack M Martins 2024 | Rory Lancman vs Jake Blumencranz | R +2.5 | D +6.9 | 85% | Likely D |
| 9 | Patricia M Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick 2024 | Lisa Malkie Vider vs Patricia M. Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick | R +2.6 | D +7.6 | 87% | Likely D |
| 58 | Thomas Fellers O'Mara 2024 | James J. Bobreski vs Thomas Fellers O'Mara | R +21.6 | R +8.6 | 10% | Likely R |
| 3 | Not on file 2022 | Antonio Vargas-Ayala vs Dean Murray | R +18.1 | R +8.9 | 9% | Likely R |
| 1 | Not on file 2022 | E. Christopher Murray vs Anthony H. Palumbo | D +1.4 | D +10.5 | 94% | Likely D |
| 44 | James N Tedisco 2024 | Sarah F. Rogerson vs James N. Tedisco | D +10.6 | D +10.7 | 95% | Likely D |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.