2026 state legislative forecast
Rhode Island House forecast
Democrats win control of the Rhode Island House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 75 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
66 to 68Median 67 · 38 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 64 D, 10 R, 1 other
Environment
D +12.0Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Rhode Island House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 67 D to 8 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | Richard R Fascia 2024 | Edward William Stravato vs Richard Rawdon Fascia · Edward Thomas Cardillo (D) withdrew | R +16.6 | R +1.1 | 44% | Toss up |
| 53 | Paul M Santucci 2024 | Suzanna L Alba vs Paul Monti Santucci | R +8.0 | D +2.8 | 66% | Lean D |
| 15 | Christopher G Paplauskas 2024 | Colleen Marie Crudele vs Christopher G Paplauskas | R +9.5 | D +7.1 | 87% | Likely D |
| 44 | Gregory J Costantino 2024 | Gregory J Costantino vs Joseph T Hosey | R +12.4 | D +9.6 | 93% | Likely D |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.