2026 state legislative forecast
California Assembly forecast
Democrats win control of the California Assembly in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 80 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
66 to 71Median 68 · 41 for a majority
Favored to flip
7to D0to R
After 2024: 60 D, 20 R
Environment
D +13.5Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
California Assembly map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 68 D to 12 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Assembly district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | Carl Demaio 2024 | Gerald C. Boursiquot vs Carl DeMaio | R +14.2 | R +0.7 | 46% | Toss up |
| 72 | Diane Dixon 2024 | Chris Kluwe vs Gracey Van Der Mark | R +2.8 | D +2.6 | 65% | Lean D |
| 1 | Heather Hadwick 2024 | Dianna Margaret James vs Heather Hadwick | R +16.5 | R +3.1 | 33% | Lean R |
| 71 | Kate Sanchez 2024 | JJ Galvez vs Kate Sanchez | R +11.4 | R +3.9 | 28% | Lean R |
| 5 | Joe Patterson 2024 | Neva Parker vs Joe Patterson | R +11.0 | R +4.2 | 27% | Lean R |
| 33 | Alexandra Macedo 2024 | Hipolito Angel Cerros vs Alexandra (Ali) Macedo | R +19.0 | R +5.6 | 19% | Lean R |
| 70 | Tri Ta 2024 | Paula Swift vs Tri Ta | R +3.2 | D +7.2 | 87% | Likely D |
| 34 | Tom Lackey 2024 | Randall Putz vs Charles Frederick Hughes | R +20.3 | R +8.9 | 10% | Likely R |
| 9 | Heath Flora 2024 | Matthew Adams vs Heath Flora | R +23.9 | R +10.8 | 5% | Likely R |
| 36 | Jeff Gonzalez 2024 | Ida S. Obeso-Martinez vs Jeff Gonzalez | R +1.2 | D +11.1 | 96% | Likely D |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.