2026 state legislative forecast
New Hampshire Senate forecast
Democrats win control of the New Hampshire Senate in 93% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 24 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 5 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
93%D3%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
13 to 21Median 17 · 13 for a majority
Favored to flip
9to D0to R
After 2024: 8 D, 16 R
Environment
D +12.4Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
New Hampshire Senate map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 17 D to 7 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Rochefort 2024 | Cathleen A. Fountain vs David Rochefort | R +9.0 | D +0.8 | 55% | Toss up |
| 14 | Sharon M Carson 2024 | Timothy Wyatt vs Sharon M. Carson | R +8.8 | R +1.1 | 45% | Toss up |
| 2 | Timothy Lang 2024 | Kurt Webber vs Timothy P. Lang Sr. | R +5.2 | D +1.2 | 57% | Toss up |
| 8 | Ruth Ward 2024 | David Trumble vs Jim Creighton | R +11.7 | R +2.1 | 39% | Lean R |
| 17 | Howard Pearl 2024 | Robert Lawliss vs Howard C. Pearl | R +13.2 | R +2.2 | 38% | Lean R |
| 16 | Keith Murphy 2024 | Dian McCarthy vs Keith Murphy | R +5.4 | D +2.8 | 67% | Lean D |
| 3 | Mark Mcconkey 2024 | Bobbi Boudman vs Mark E. McConkey | R +4.6 | D +3.2 | 70% | Lean D |
| 7 | Daniel Innis 2024 | Rebecca Harned vs Daniel Innis | R +6.9 | D +3.3 | 69% | Lean D |
| 6 | James P Gray 2024 | Cecil Abels vs James P. Gray | R +11.3 | R +3.4 | 31% | Lean R |
| 19 | Regina M Birdsell 2024 | Michelle Moge vs Regina M. Birdsell | R +13.2 | R +5.4 | 22% | Lean R |
| 12 | Kevin A Avard 2024 | Carryl L. Roy vs Kevin A. Avard | D +0.7 | D +6.6 | 86% | Likely D |
| 23 | Bill Gannon 2024 | David Childs vs William "Bill" Gannon | R +16.5 | R +8.8 | 10% | Likely R |
| 18 | Victoria Sullivan 2024 | Leonard Bell vs Victoria Sullivan | R +1.4 | D +10.1 | 93% | Likely D |
| 9 | Denise Ricciardi 2024 | Matthew McLaughlin vs Denise Ricciardi | R +0.9 | D +10.2 | 95% | Likely D |
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 17%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll | 2026-09-21 | 51 | 41 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.