2026 state legislative forecast
Ohio House forecast
Republicans win control of the Ohio House in 98% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 99 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 6 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
2%D98%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
39 to 47Median 42 ยท 50 for a majority
Favored to flip
8to D0to R
After 2024: 34 D, 65 R
Environment
D +10.5Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Ohio House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 43 D to 56 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | Phil Plummer 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +5.7 | R +1.2 | 43% | Toss up |
| 52 | Gayle Manning 2024 | Mike Baker vs Nathan Manning | R +4.1 | D +1.3 | 56% | Toss up |
| 29 | Cindy Abrams 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +10.7 | R +2.0 | 38% | Lean R |
| 37 | Tom Young 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +8.5 | D +2.0 | 61% | Lean D |
| 44 | Josh Williams 2024 | David Fournier vs Edward Schimmel | R +10.2 | R +2.3 | 35% | Lean R |
| 17 | Mike Dovilla 2024 | Megan Coy vs Mike Dovilla | R +6.5 | D +2.8 | 64% | Lean D |
| 32 | Jack K Daniels 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +14.1 | R +3.8 | 29% | Lean R |
| 75 | Haraz N Ghanbari 2024 | Jake Kielmeyer vs Haraz Ghanbari | R +10.8 | R +4.3 | 27% | Lean R |
| 60 | Brian Lorenz 2024 | Shelby Kimball vs Brian Lorenz | R +0.8 | D +5.9 | 83% | Lean D |
| 72 | Heidi Workman 2024 | Jeff Clapper vs Heidi Workman | R +16.8 | R +6.7 | 16% | Likely R |
| 49 | Jim Thomas 2024 | Krista Allison vs Jim Thomas | R +2.6 | D +6.9 | 85% | Likely D |
| 31 | Bill Roemer 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +1.0 | D +7.1 | 86% | Likely D |
| 68 | Thad Claggett 2024 | Mason Blankenship vs Thaddeus Claggett | R +19.9 | R +8.4 | 11% | Likely R |
| 59 | Tex Fischer 2024 | Wayne Penny Jr. vs Tex Fischer | R +24.4 | R +9.0 | 8% | Likely R |
| 73 | Jeff Lare 2024 | Whittney Wood vs Jeff LaRe | R +16.8 | R +9.0 | 9% | Likely R |
| 70 | Brian Lampton 2024 | Kim McCarthy vs Brian Lampton | R +17.2 | R +9.8 | 7% | Likely R |
| 10 | Mark Sigrist 2024 | Mark Sigrist vs Denise D'Angelo | R +1.7 | D +11.2 | 95% | Likely D |
| 45 | Jennifer Gross 2024 | Jayson Rasheed vs Jennifer Gross | R +19.5 | R +11.4 | 4% | Likely R |
| 61 | Beth Lear 2024 | Vince McGrail vs Shawn Stevens | R +19.7 | R +11.4 | 5% | Likely R |
| 56 | Adam Mathews 2024 | Laalitya Acharya vs Adam Mathews | R +18.7 | R +11.7 | 4% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.