2026 state legislative forecast
North Carolina House forecast
Democrats win control of the North Carolina House in 51% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 120 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 7 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
51%D40%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
55 to 68Median 61 ยท 61 for a majority
Favored to flip
10to D0to R
After 2024: 49 D, 71 R
Environment
D +9.0Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
North Carolina House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 61 D to 59 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ted Davis Jr 2024 | Tim Merrick vs Dane Scalise | R +8.8 | R +0.5 | 49% | Toss up |
| 64 | Dennis Riddell 2024 | LeVon Barnes vs Dennis Riddell | R +8.7 | D +0.6 | 52% | Toss up |
| 63 | Stephen Ross 2024 | Ian Baltutis vs Ryan Moffitt | R +7.8 | D +0.9 | 54% | Toss up |
| 82 | Brian Echevarria 2024 | Chris Bishopp vs Brian Echevarria | R +12.7 | R +0.9 | 44% | Toss up |
| 119 | Mike Clampitt 2024 | Mark Burrows vs Anna Ferguson ยท Mike Clampitt (R) withdrew | R +12.7 | R +2.0 | 37% | Lean R |
| 5 | Bill Ward 2024 | Sam Davis III vs Bill Ward | R +6.8 | D +2.2 | 62% | Lean D |
| 26 | Donna Mcdowell White 2024 | L'Bertrice Solomon vs Donna McDowell White | R +10.1 | R +2.2 | 36% | Lean R |
| 9 | Timothy Reeder 2024 | Claire Kempner vs Timothy Reeder | R +12.2 | R +2.3 | 35% | Lean R |
| 7 | Matthew Winslow 2024 | Mark Speed vs Cory Thornton | R +12.6 | R +3.4 | 29% | Lean R |
| 75 | Donny C Lambeth 2024 | Jen Wiles vs Donny C. Lambeth | R +12.2 | R +3.4 | 28% | Lean R |
| 37 | Erin Pare 2024 | Winn Decker vs Erin Pare | R +5.7 | D +3.8 | 71% | Lean D |
| 43 | Diane Wheatley 2024 | Janene Ackles vs Diane Wheatley | R +12.7 | R +4.0 | 28% | Lean R |
| 117 | Jennifer Capps Balkcom 2024 | Lynne Russo vs Chelsea Walsh | R +12.1 | R +4.1 | 27% | Lean R |
| 12 | Chris Humphrey 2024 | Don Hardy vs Chris Humphrey | R +11.7 | R +4.2 | 26% | Lean R |
| 74 | Jeffrey "Jeff" Zenger 2024 | Amy Taylor North vs Jeff Zenger | R +7.5 | D +4.2 | 73% | Lean D |
| 93 | Ray Pickett 2024 | Charlie Wallin vs Ray Pickett | R +15.6 | R +4.9 | 22% | Lean R |
| 109 | Donnie Loftis 2024 | Mark D. Carver vs Donnie Loftis | R +15.2 | R +5.9 | 19% | Lean R |
| 59 | Alan Branson 2024 | Elma Hairston vs Alan Branson | R +22.0 | R +6.6 | 16% | Likely R |
| 73 | Jonathan Almond 2024 | Thomas J. Monks vs Jonathan Almond | D +2.9 | D +8.0 | 88% | Likely D |
| 25 | Allen Chesser 2024 | Lorenza M. Wilkins vs Allen Chesser | R +0.1 | D +9.2 | 92% | Likely D |
| 10 | John Bell 2024 | Zyaire Webb vs John Bell | R +16.2 | R +9.3 | 7% | Likely R |
| 115 | Lindsey Prather 2024 | Lindsey Prather vs Anthony J. Penland | R +2.9 | D +9.8 | 93% | Likely D |
| 24 | Dante Pittman 2024 | Dante Pittman vs Blake Boykin | R +1.7 | D +10.0 | 93% | Likely D |
| 32 | Bryan Cohn 2024 | Bryan K. Cohn vs Frank Sossamon | D +0.5 | D +10.3 | 95% | Likely D |
| 52 | Ben Moss Jr 2024 | Joe Parfitt vs Ben Moss | R +17.9 | R +10.5 | 6% | Likely R |
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 50%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research for Carolina Forward | 2026-05-08 | 47 | 41 |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation | 2026-05-11 | 47.5 | 41.3 |
| Catawba College / YouGov | 2026-06-10 | 44 | 38 |
| Change Research for Carolina Forward | 2026-08-06 | 48 | 41 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-08-12 | 48 | 46 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-08-12 | 45 | 43 |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation | 2026-08-10 | 48 | 42.6 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-09-16 | 48 | 44 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-09-16 | 46 | 42 |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation | 2026-09-15 | 49.5 | 41.3 |
| Change Research for Carolina Forward | 2026-10-07 | 49 | 42 |
| Catawba College / YouGov | 2026-09-15 | 47 | 39 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-04-06 | 47 | 43 |
| High Point University Poll / YouGov | 2026-04-06 | 45 | 41 |
| High Point University Poll | 2026-02-20 | 46 | 41 |
| Harper Polling for Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation | 2026-03-23 | 45.3 | 43.2 |
| Change Research for Carolina Forward | 2026-01-07 | 43 | 43 |
| Elon University Poll / YouGov | 2026-03-20 | 41 | 37 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.