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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Texas Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Texas Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 16 of the 31 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 15 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 31On the ballot 16Texas HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
10 to 10
Median 10 · 16 for a majority
Favored to flip
0to D0to R
After 2024: 10 D, 16 R
Environment
D +12.3
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Texas Senate map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6, not up in 2026District 7, not up in 2026District 8, not up in 2026District 9: Democrats 5%District 10, not up in 2026District 11: Democrats <1%District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats <1%District 14, not up in 2026District 15, not up in 2026District 16, not up in 2026District 17, not up in 2026District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats >99%District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats >99%District 22: Democrats <1%District 23, not up in 2026District 24: Democrats <1%District 25, not up in 2026District 26: Democrats >99%District 27, not up in 2026District 28: Democrats <1%District 29, not up in 2026District 30, not up in 2026District 31: Democrats <1%12345781011121317181920212224252728293031
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 10 D to 21 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 21: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 19: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win 5%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 13: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
16 for a majority71214

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
9Hancock 2022Taylor Rehmet vs Leigh WambsganssR +26.5R +11.35%Likely R

Legislative ballot polls

Weight 42%
PollsterField endDR
University of Texas / Texas Politics Project2026-06-124450
University of Texas / Texas Politics Project2026-08-134349
University of Texas / Texas Politics Project2026-10-054348
University of Texas / Texas Politics Project2026-10-054849
University of Texas / Texas Politics Project2026-02-164243
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.