2026 state legislative forecast
Arizona House forecast
Democrats win control of the Arizona House in 62% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 60 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
62%D19%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
28 to 33Median 31 · 31 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D1to R
After 2024: 26 D, 34 R
Environment
D +13.5Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Arizona House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 31 D to 29 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 172 seats | Rachel Jones, Cory Mcgarr 2024 | Hollace Lyon, Kevin Volk vs John Winchester, Rachel Keshel | R +8.7 | D +4.1 | 73% | Lean D |
| 42 seats | Matt Gress, Pamela Carter 2024 | Karen Gresham, Tammy Caputi vs Matt Gress, Pamela Carter | R +3.6 | D +5.7 | 80% | Lean D |
| 132 seats | Jeff Weninger, Julie Willoughby 2024 | Racquel Armstrong, Jacob Weinberg vs Kevin Hartke, Janet Weninger | R +1.2 | D +6.1 | 82% | Likely D |
| 22 seats | Stephanie Simacek, Justin Wilmeth 2024 | Stephanie Simacek vs Justin Wilmeth, Paul Carver Jr. | R +5.6 | R +8.3 | 10% | Likely R |
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 3%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP | 2026-07-28 | 49 | 46 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.