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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Kentucky House forecast

Republicans win control of the Kentucky House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 4 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 100On the ballot 100Kentucky SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
21 to 26
Median 23 ยท 51 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D1to R
After 2024: 20 D, 80 R
Environment
D +11.1
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Kentucky House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats <1%District 11: Democrats <1%District 12: Democrats <1%District 13: Democrats 1%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats <1%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17: Democrats <1%District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats <1%District 20: Democrats <1%District 21: Democrats <1%District 22: Democrats <1%District 23: Democrats <1%District 24: Democrats <1%District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats <1%District 27: Democrats <1%District 28: Democrats 27%District 29: Democrats 41%District 30: Democrats >99%District 31: Democrats 97%District 32: Democrats >99%District 33: Democrats 52%District 34: Democrats >99%District 35: Democrats >99%District 36: Democrats 37%District 37: Democrats <1%District 38: Democrats 95%District 39: Democrats 12%District 40: Democrats >99%District 41: Democrats >99%District 42: Democrats >99%District 43: Democrats >99%District 44: Democrats >99%District 45: Democrats 92%District 46: Democrats >99%District 47: Democrats <1%District 48: Democrats 90%District 49: Democrats <1%District 50: Democrats <1%District 51: Democrats <1%District 52: Democrats <1%District 53: Democrats <1%District 54: Democrats <1%District 55: Democrats <1%District 56: Democrats 19%District 57: Democrats >99%District 58: Democrats <1%District 59: Democrats 3%District 60: Democrats <1%District 61: Democrats <1%District 62: Democrats <1%District 63: Democrats <1%District 64: Democrats <1%District 65: Democrats 62%District 66: Democrats <1%District 67: Democrats 93%District 68: Democrats <1%District 69: Democrats 2%District 70: Democrats <1%District 71: Democrats <1%District 72: Democrats <1%District 73: Democrats 1%District 74: Democrats <1%District 75: Democrats >99%District 76: Democrats >99%District 77: Democrats >99%District 78: Democrats <1%District 79: Democrats >99%District 80: Democrats <1%District 81: Democrats <1%District 82: Democrats <1%District 83: Democrats <1%District 84: Democrats <1%District 85: Democrats <1%District 86: Democrats <1%District 87: Democrats <1%District 88: Democrats 14%District 89: Democrats <1%District 90: Democrats <1%District 91: Democrats <1%District 92: Democrats <1%District 93: Democrats >99%District 94: Democrats <1%District 95: Democrats <1%District 96: Democrats <1%District 97: Democrats <1%District 98: Democrats <1%District 99: Democrats <1%District 100: Democrats <1%123456810111214151618192122232427475051525455566170717274788082838485868789909192949596979899100
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 23 D to 77 R
District 30: Democrats win >99%District 32: Democrats win >99%District 34: Democrats win >99%District 40: Democrats win >99%District 41: Democrats win >99%District 42: Democrats win >99%District 43: Democrats win >99%District 44: Democrats win >99%District 46: Democrats win >99%District 57: Democrats win >99%District 75: Democrats win >99%District 76: Democrats win >99%District 77: Democrats win >99%District 79: Democrats win >99%District 93: Democrats win >99%District 35: Democrats win >99%District 31: Democrats win 97%District 38: Democrats win 95%District 67: Democrats win 93%District 45: Democrats win 92%District 48: Democrats win 90%District 65: Democrats win 62%District 33: Democrats win 52%District 29: Democrats win 41%District 36: Democrats win 37%District 28: Democrats win 27%District 56: Democrats win 19%District 88: Democrats win 14%District 39: Democrats win 12%District 59: Democrats win 3%District 69: Democrats win 2%District 13: Democrats win 1%District 73: Democrats win 1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 64: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 68: Democrats win <1%District 81: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 21: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 26: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 49: Democrats win <1%District 50: Democrats win <1%District 51: Democrats win <1%District 52: Democrats win <1%District 53: Democrats win <1%District 54: Democrats win <1%District 55: Democrats win <1%District 58: Democrats win <1%District 60: Democrats win <1%District 61: Democrats win <1%District 62: Democrats win <1%District 63: Democrats win <1%District 66: Democrats win <1%District 70: Democrats win <1%District 71: Democrats win <1%District 72: Democrats win <1%District 74: Democrats win <1%District 78: Democrats win <1%District 80: Democrats win <1%District 82: Democrats win <1%District 83: Democrats win <1%District 84: Democrats win <1%District 85: Democrats win <1%District 86: Democrats win <1%District 87: Democrats win <1%District 89: Democrats win <1%District 90: Democrats win <1%District 91: Democrats win <1%District 92: Democrats win <1%District 94: Democrats win <1%District 95: Democrats win <1%District 96: Democrats win <1%District 97: Democrats win <1%District 98: Democrats win <1%District 99: Democrats win <1%District 100: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
51 for a majority143334

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
33Jason Michael Nemes 2024Jennifer Hardin vs Jason Michael NemesR +7.8D +0.452%Toss up
29Chris Lewis 2024Cassie Blausey vs Chris LewisR +10.4R +1.741%Toss up
65Stephanie Ann Dietz 2024Aaron John Currin vs Stephanie A. DietzR +5.6D +2.062%Lean D
36John F Hodgson 2024William "Woody" Zorn vs John F. HodgsonR +11.1R +2.337%Lean R
28Jared A Bauman 2024Almaria Baker vs Jared A. BaumanR +13.1R +4.127%Lean R
56Daniel A Fister 2024David Graves vs Daniel A. FisterR +19.2R +6.019%Likely R
88Vanessa Grossl 2024L. Scott Miller (I) vs Vanessa GrosslR +6.3R +7.214% ILikely R
39Matt Lockett 2024Ryan Stanford vs Matt LockettR +18.6R +7.912%Likely R
48Ken Fleming 2024Suhas Kulkarni vs Ken FlemingD +2.4D +8.690%Likely D
45Adam Moore 2024Adam Moore vs Killian TimoneyR +4.2D +9.492%Likely D
67Matthew Lehman 2024Matthew Lehman vs Terry HattonR +2.7D +9.993%Likely D
38Rachel Roarx 2024Rachel Roarx vs Carrie Sanders McKeehanR +1.4D +11.195%Likely D
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.