2026 state legislative forecast
Delaware House forecast
Democrats win control of the Delaware House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 41 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
30 to 33Median 31 · 21 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D0to R
After 2024: 27 D, 14 R
Environment
D +11.6Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Delaware House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 31 D to 10 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jeff Hilovsky 2024 | Gregg Lindner vs Dan Zitofsky | R +6.8 | D +0.2 | 52% | Toss up |
| 38 | Ronald E Gray 2024 | Maureen Madden vs Carlie Carey | R +11.9 | R +0.3 | 48% | Toss up |
| 33 | Charles S Postles Jr 2024 | Joshua Pennington vs Morgan Hudson | R +14.3 | R +2.7 | 33% | Lean R |
| 36 | Bryan William Shupe 2024 | Andrew Gorlich vs Bryan William Shupe | R +12.3 | R +7.7 | 14% | Likely R |
| 34 | Lyndon D Yearick 2024 | Annie Norman vs Lyndon D. Yearick | D +4.4 | D +8.5 | 90% | Likely D |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.