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The Weighting Room
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2026 forecast ยท Texas 35th

Johnny Garcia is slightly favored to win Texas's 35th District.

Johnny Garcia vs Carlos De La Cruz, an open seat. The model has Garcia ahead by 1.7 points, winning 60 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Toss upModel D +1.7Polls R +0.0Updated October 28, 2026
Johnny Garcia
Democrat
50.9%
133,726 projected votes
Carlos De La Cruz
Republican
49.1%
129,201 projected votes
60%Garcia
40%Cruz
Garcia slightly favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Garcia wins about 60 of 100
RatingToss up60% chance for Garcia
Model marginD +1.7Polls R +0.0
80 percent rangeD +10.1 to R +6.62,000 simulations
Projected votes262,927Garcia 50.9%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Texas districts

38 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Johnny GarciaDemocrat ยท 60% to win
50.9%
Carlos De La CruzRepublican ยท 40% to win
49.1%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

262,927 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Johnny Garcia D133,72650.9%
Carlos De La Cruz R129,20149.1%
Total262,927100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%60% Garcia40% Cruz19 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Texas governor polling average
38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%MayJunJulAugSepOct46.7Hinojosa50.0Abbott
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Emerson CollegeOct 19 ยท 1,000 LV ยท Gold15%Abbott +4.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 ยท 1,398 LV ยท A++15%Abbott +5.0
On Point PollingOct 18 ยท 385 LV ยท Gold15%Abbott +2.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 ยท 881 LV ยท A++9.9%Abbott +5.0
Texas Public Opinion ResearchOct 18 ยท 969 LV ยท NR ยท D lean, counted Abbott +3.1 in the average7.0%Abbott +3.0
University of Houston Hobby SchoolOct 14 ยท 2,000 LV ยท NR6.4%Abbott +3.0
Every other poll together: 31%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageR +0.0

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Garcia +1.7
Chance of winning
Johnny Garcia60%
Carlos De La Cruz40%
Simulated vote
Johnny Garcia50.9%
Carlos De La Cruz49.1%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +10.0
FundamentalsD +4.5
With pollsD +1.7

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +12R +12Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +10.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +4.5With pollsaverage R +0.0D +1.7
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Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.