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2026 forecast ยท Texas 17th

Pete Sessions is very likely to win Texas's 17th District.

Casey Shepard vs Pete Sessions. The model has Sessions ahead by 10.3 points, winning 92 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Likely RModel R +10.3Updated October 28, 2026
Casey Shepard
Democrat
44.9%
119,962 projected votes
Pete Sessions
Republican
55.1%
147,501 projected votes
92%Sessions
8%Shepard
Sessions very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Sessions wins about 92 of 100
RatingLikely R92% chance for Sessions
Model marginR +10.3No polls in the race
80 percent rangeR +1.2 to R +19.22,000 simulations
Projected votes267,463Sessions 55.1%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Texas districts

38 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Casey ShepardDemocrat ยท 8% to win
44.9%
Pete SessionsRepublican ยท 92% to win
55.1%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

267,463 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Pete Sessions R147,50155.1%
Casey Shepard D119,96244.9%
Total267,463100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%8% Shepard92% Sessions20 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Texas governor polling average
38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%MayJunJulAugSepOct46.7Hinojosa50.0Abbott
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Emerson CollegeOct 19 ยท 1,000 LV ยท Gold15%Abbott +4.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 ยท 1,398 LV ยท A++15%Abbott +5.0
On Point PollingOct 18 ยท 385 LV ยท Gold15%Abbott +2.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 ยท 881 LV ยท A++9.9%Abbott +5.0
Texas Public Opinion ResearchOct 18 ยท 969 LV ยท NR ยท D lean, counted Abbott +3.1 in the average7.0%Abbott +3.0
University of Houston Hobby SchoolOct 14 ยท 2,000 LV ยท NR6.4%Abbott +3.0
Every other poll together: 31%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Sessions +10.3
Chance of winning
Casey Shepard8%
Pete Sessions92%
Simulated vote
Casey Shepard44.9%
Pete Sessions55.1%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +21.0
FundamentalsR +10.2
With pollsR +10.3

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +25R +25Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +21.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +10.2With pollsno pollsR +10.3
On Point on YouTubeThe Texas House race, explained on YouTubeForecast breakdowns, the polls and election night coverage on the On Point channel.Subscribe
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.