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2026 forecast ยท Texas 27th

Michael Cloud is very likely to win Texas's 27th District.

Tanya Lloyd vs Michael Cloud. The model has Cloud ahead by 8.6 points, winning 90 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Likely RModel R +8.6Updated October 28, 2026
Tanya Lloyd
Democrat
45.7%
122,121 projected votes
Michael Cloud
Republican
54.3%
145,097 projected votes
90%Cloud
10%Lloyd
Cloud very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Cloud wins about 90 of 100
RatingLikely R90% chance for Cloud
Model marginR +8.6No polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +0.1 to R +17.42,000 simulations
Projected votes267,218Cloud 54.3%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Texas districts

38 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Tanya LloydDemocrat ยท 10% to win
45.7%
Michael CloudRepublican ยท 90% to win
54.3%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

267,218 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Michael Cloud R145,09754.3%
Tanya Lloyd D122,12145.7%
Total267,218100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%10% Lloyd90% Cloud19 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Texas governor polling average
38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%MayJunJulAugSepOct46.7Hinojosa50.0Abbott
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
Emerson CollegeOct 19 ยท 1,000 LV ยท Gold15%Abbott +4.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 ยท 1,398 LV ยท A++15%Abbott +5.0
On Point PollingOct 18 ยท 385 LV ยท Gold15%Abbott +2.0
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 ยท 881 LV ยท A++9.9%Abbott +5.0
Texas Public Opinion ResearchOct 18 ยท 969 LV ยท NR ยท D lean, counted Abbott +3.1 in the average7.0%Abbott +3.0
University of Houston Hobby SchoolOct 14 ยท 2,000 LV ยท NR6.4%Abbott +3.0
Every other poll together: 31%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Cloud +8.6
Chance of winning
Tanya Lloyd10%
Michael Cloud90%
Simulated vote
Tanya Lloyd45.7%
Michael Cloud54.3%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +21.0
FundamentalsR +8.3
With pollsR +8.6

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +25R +25Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +21.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +8.3With pollsno pollsR +8.6
On Point on YouTubeThe Texas House race, explained on YouTubeForecast breakdowns, the polls and election night coverage on the On Point channel.Subscribe
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.