2026 forecast
Florida Senate forecast
Angie Nixon vs Ashley Moody. The model has Moody ahead by 4.1 points, winning 78 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
67 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +3.0 and R +11.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +4.7 | |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | 6d | R +3.5 |
| YouGov | 3,813 LV | 8d | R +5.9 |
| Targoz Market Research | 847 LV | 9d | R +8.3 |
| Mason-Dixon for Telemundo | 625 LV | 12d | R +8.9 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,063 LV | 16d | R +2.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 600 LV | 22d | R +5.3 |
| Stetson University | 830 LV | 22d | R +9.3 |
| St. Pete Polls | 913 LV | 26d | R +1.5 |
| Quantus Insights | 733 LV | 33d | R +5.2 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,107 LV | 34d | R +1.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Nixon | Moody |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 43.3 | 54.4 |
| Women | 53% | 49.9 | 47.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 12% | 48.0 | 49.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 44.5 | 53.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 46.7 | 50.9 |
| 65+ | 36% | 47.6 | 50.1 |
| RaceWhite | 62% | 35.1 | 62.5 |
| Black | 14% | 80.7 | 17.1 |
| Latino | 19% | 55.1 | 42.8 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 65.2 | 32.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 28% | 29.6 | 68.0 |
| White women | 34% | 39.8 | 57.8 |
| Black men | 7% | 76.7 | 21.1 |
| Black women | 7% | 84.3 | 13.5 |
| Latino men | 9% | 54.5 | 43.4 |
| Latino women | 10% | 55.7 | 42.2 |
| All other races | 5% | 65.2 | 32.0 |