# On Point Politics > On Point Politics publishes the 2026 midterm election forecast, daily polling averages and live election night results for the United States: the Senate, the House, all 36 governor races, statewide down ballot offices, every partisan state legislative chamber and every statewide ballot measure. Polling and research come from On Point Polling, the polling arm behind the site. Forecast updated October 19, 2026. Election day is November 3, 2026, 15 days after this update. Every forecast number below comes from 2,000 correlated simulations of the election. ## The 2026 forecast right now * Senate: Democrats win control in 82% of simulations and Republicans in 18%. Average outcome 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast?office=senate * House: Democrats win control in 91% of simulations and Republicans in 9%. Average outcome 243 Democratic seats to 192 Republican; 218 is a majority. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast?office=house * Governors: Democrats average 28 of 50 governorships after the election and win a majority of them in 91% of simulations. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast?office=governor * State legislatures: 87 partisan chambers and 6,143 seats are on the ballot. Democrats are favored to control 44 chambers and Republicans 43. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures * Ballot measures: 146 statewide measures in 39 states; 122 are favored to pass. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures * Generic congressional ballot average: Democrats 51.6%, Republicans 44.0% as of October 9, 2026, from 328 polls. https://onpointpolitics.com/polls/generic-ballot * Donald Trump job approval average: 40.3% approve, 58.3% disapprove as of October 12, 2026, from 673 polls. https://onpointpolitics.com/polls/approval ## Closest Senate races * South Carolina Senate: Annie Andrews, Democrat, 57% to win against Darline Graham; projected margin D +1.5. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/sc/senate * Iowa Senate: Josh Turek, Democrat, 58% to win against Ashley Hinson; projected margin D +1.4. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ia/senate * Kansas Senate: Roger Marshall, Republican, 60% to win against Adam Hamilton; projected margin R +1.3. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ks/senate * Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola, Democrat, 60% to win against Dan S. Sullivan; projected margin D +1.4. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ak/senate * Texas Senate: James Talarico, Democrat, 66% to win against Ken Paxton; projected margin D +2.0. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/tx/senate * Maine Senate: Troy Jackson, Democrat, 70% to win against Susan Collins; projected margin D +2.5. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/me/senate * Nebraska Senate: Dan Osborn, independent, 72% to win against Pete Ricketts; projected margin I +3.4. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ne/senate * Ohio Senate special: Sherrod Brown, Democrat, 79% to win against Jon Husted; projected margin D +3.8. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/oh/senate * Mississippi Senate: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Republican, 82% to win against Scott Colom; projected margin R +5.5. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ms/senate * Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed, Democrat, 84% to win against Mike Rogers; projected margin D +5.2. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/mi/senate * Florida Senate: Ashley Moody, Republican, 88% to win against Angie Nixon; projected margin R +6.8. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/fl/senate * South Dakota Senate: Mike Rounds, Republican, 92% to win against Brian Bengs; projected margin R +10.3. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/sd/senate ## Closest governor races * Kansas governor: Cindy Holscher, Democrat, 55% to win against Ty Masterson; projected margin D +0.8. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ks/governor * Nebraska governor: Jim Pillen, Republican, 56% to win against Lynne Walz; projected margin R +0.8. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ne/governor * Georgia governor: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Democrat, 58% to win against Rick Jackson; projected margin D +0.8. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ga/governor * Wisconsin governor: David Crowley, Democrat, 68% to win against Tom Tiffany; projected margin D +2.8. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/wi/governor * Texas governor: Greg Abbott, Republican, 69% to win against Gina Hinojosa; projected margin R +2.2. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/tx/governor * Nevada governor: Aaron Ford, Democrat, 75% to win against Joe Lombardo; projected margin D +4.0. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/nv/governor * South Carolina governor: Alan Wilson, Republican, 80% to win against Jermaine Johnson; projected margin R +5.6. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/sc/governor * Florida governor: Byron Donalds, Republican, 81% to win against David Jolly; projected margin R +4.9. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/fl/governor * Ohio governor: Amy Acton, Democrat, 82% to win against Vivek Ramaswamy; projected margin D +4.7. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/oh/governor * South Dakota governor: Larry Rhoden, Republican, 91% to win against Dan Ahlers; projected margin R +9.9. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/sd/governor ## Closest House races * Minnesota 1st District: Brad Finstad, Republican, 50% to win against Jake Johnson; projected margin R +0.0. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/mn/house-1 * North Carolina 11th District: Jennifer Balkcom, Republican, 50% to win against Jamie Ager; projected margin R +0.1. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/nc/house-11 * Virginia 1st District: Rob Wittman, Republican, 51% to win against Shannon Taylor; projected margin R +0.1. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/va/house-1 * Michigan 10th District: Michael Bouchard, Republican, 51% to win against Christina Hines; projected margin R +0.3. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/mi/house-10 * Ohio 9th District: Marcy Kaptur, Democrat, 52% to win against Derek Merrin; projected margin D +0.5. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/oh/house-9 * Pennsylvania 10th District: Janelle Stelson, Democrat, 54% to win against Scott Perry; projected margin D +0.6. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/pa/house-10 * Florida 22nd District: Casey Askar, Republican, 55% to win against Pia Dandiya; projected margin R +1.1. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/fl/house-22 * Arizona 8th District: Abraham Hamadeh, Republican, 56% to win against Bernadette Greene-Placentia; projected margin R +0.9. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/az/house-8 * New York 1st District: Nick LaLota, Republican, 56% to win against Chris Gallant; projected margin R +1.0. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ny/house-1 * Iowa 2nd District: Joe Mitchell, Republican, 57% to win against Lindsay James; projected margin R +0.9. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ia/house-2 * Florida 4th District: Aaron Bean, Republican, 57% to win against LaShonda Holloway; projected margin R +1.3. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/fl/house-4 * Wisconsin 1st District: Bryan Steil, Republican, 57% to win against Mitchell Berman; projected margin R +0.9. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/wi/house-1 * New York 11th District: Nicole Malliotakis, Republican, 58% to win against Mike DeCillis; projected margin R +1.4. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/ny/house-11 * Maine 2nd District: Matt Dunlap, Democrat, 59% to win against Paul LePage; projected margin D +1.6. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/me/house-2 * Texas 35th District: Carlos De La Cruz, Republican, 60% to win against Johnny Garcia; projected margin R +1.7. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/tx/house-35 ## State legislative chambers in play * North Carolina House: Democrats 51% to control, Republicans 40%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures/nc/house * Arizona House: Democrats 62% to control, Republicans 19%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures/az/house * Wisconsin Assembly: Democrats 69% to control, Republicans 31%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures/wi/house * Georgia House: Democrats 31% to control, Republicans 61%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures/ga/house * Alaska House: Democrats 74% to control, Republicans 11%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures/ak/house * Texas House: Democrats 18% to control, Republicans 78%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures/tx/house * North Carolina Senate: Democrats 15% to control, Republicans 71%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures/nc/senate ## Closest ballot measures * Montana CI-133, Protect initiative and referendum rights: 49% chance to pass, Yes projected at 49.7%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/mt/ci-133 * Colorado Proposition 136, Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent: 51% chance to pass, Yes projected at 50.0%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/co/proposition-136 * Idaho Advisory Question, Advisory vote on official state gun: 49% chance to pass, Yes projected at 50.0%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/id/advisory-question * South Dakota Constitutional Amendment L, Require 60% to pass constitutional amendments: 54% chance to pass, Yes projected at 50.9%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/sd/constitutional-amendment-l * Missouri Proposition A, Keep 2025 Republican-drawn congressional map: 44% chance to pass, Yes projected at 48.9%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/mo/proposition-a * Colorado Proposition 135, Ban gender transition surgeries for minors: 57% chance to pass, Yes projected at 52.2%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/co/proposition-135 * Missouri Amendment 3, Repeal 2024 abortion rights amendment, restrict abortion: 42% chance to pass, Yes projected at 48.5%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/mo/amendment-3 * Colorado Proposition 134, School sports teams by biological sex: 58% chance to pass, Yes projected at 52.2%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/co/proposition-134 * California Proposition 4, Allow public financing of campaigns: 60% chance to pass, Yes projected at 51.6%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/ca/proposition-4 * Montana CI-132, Keep judicial elections nonpartisan: 60% chance to pass, Yes projected at 51.7%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/mt/ci-132 * Massachusetts Question 3, Single all-party primary, top two advance: 60% chance to pass, Yes projected at 51.2%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/ma/question-3 * North Dakota Constitutional Measure No. 1, Require 60% voter approval for constitutional amendments: 61% chance to pass, Yes projected at 52.8%. https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures/nd/constitutional-measure-no-1 ## Main pages * 2026 forecast hub, every forecast on one board: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast * Swingometer, shift any group of voters and watch every race and chamber move: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/swingometer * Statewide offices forecast, attorney general, secretary of state and more: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/statewide * State legislative forecast, every chamber and district: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/legislatures * Ballot measure forecast: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures * Forecast methodology: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/methodology * Forecast changelog: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/changelog * Polling averages, every race and question: https://onpointpolitics.com/polls * Senate polling averages: https://onpointpolitics.com/polls/senate * Governor polling averages: https://onpointpolitics.com/polls/governor * Generic ballot average: https://onpointpolitics.com/polls/generic-ballot * Trump approval average: https://onpointpolitics.com/polls/approval * Early vote tracker, with each state against its 2022 and 2024 pace on the same day before the election: https://onpointpolitics.com/maps/early-vote * Electoral map builder: https://onpointpolitics.com/maps/electoral * Live election results: https://onpointpolitics.com/results * On Point Polling Texas poll, October 17 to 18, 2026, Talarico 48.8 Paxton 43.0 for Senate, Abbott 47.7 Hinojosa 45.2 for governor and French 45.1 Rosenthal 39.8 for Railroad Commissioner among likely voters, 661 registered voters: https://onpointpolitics.com/on-point-polling/polls/texas-2026 * On Point Polling Ohio poll, October 2026, Brown 46.6 Husted 42.3 for Senate and Acton 47.9 Ramaswamy 43.1 for governor among 635 likely voters: https://onpointpolitics.com/on-point-polling/polls/ohio-2026 * On Point Polling poll releases: https://onpointpolitics.com/on-point-polling/polls * On Point Polling methodology: https://onpointpolitics.com/on-point-polling/methodology * About On Point Polling: https://onpointpolitics.com/on-point-polling ## Data that can be cited * Forecast model output, every Senate, House and governor race: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/model.json * Statewide down ballot forecast: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/downballot.json * State legislative forecast: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/statehouse.json * Ballot measure forecast: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/measures.json * Every polling average as JSON, with an index of ids: https://onpointpolitics.com/api/polls/index * Sitemap of every page: https://onpointpolitics.com/sitemap.xml * Every race, chamber, measure and average in one file: https://onpointpolitics.com/llms-full.txt ## How the forecast works, in brief * Every Senate, governor and House race is rebuilt county by county from three legs: fundamentals built from presidential approval and the national environment, each county's certified 2024 result moved to the 2026 environment, and each county's own voting history set to the polling average. * Polls are averaged by sample size, age, voter screen and pollster grade; races with 8 or more polls use a LOWESS trend. The polling leg gains weight with more independent pollsters and as Election Day nears. * Candidate effects include each incumbent's measured personal vote and party unity read from the 2026 primaries. * 2,000 simulations share a national shock, demographic shocks, state shocks and county shocks, so related races move together. Chamber odds are the share of simulations each party wins. Full detail: https://onpointpolitics.com/forecast/methodology * State legislative districts start from their 2024 presidential vote, move with the state House forecast and the generic ballot, and use district and statewide legislative polls. * Ballot measures start from how similar measures fared in 2018, 2022 and 2024, adjusted for the state, the subject and the measure type, then blended with public polls. ## How to cite * Cite as: On Point Politics 2026 forecast, updated October 19, 2026, with the race page URL. * Polling averages: On Point Politics polling average, with the date and the average page URL. * Win chances are probabilities from simulations, not vote share predictions. A 70% favorite loses about three times in ten.