How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Arkansas Senate
Hallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2535
Raised $3.7M against $7.0M for Tom Cotton.
- Cash weight 2017
$1.4M in the bank against $6.8M for Tom Cotton. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Hallie Shoffner and $5.2M helping Tom Cotton.
- Early vote weight 1558
Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 27.1 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.92 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.9 points of that tide, a tailwind for Hallie Shoffner.
- Activity weight 1050
5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $9K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2566
Raised $7.0M against $3.7M for Hallie Shoffner.
- Cash weight 2083
$6.8M in the bank against $1.4M for Hallie Shoffner. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $5.2M helping Tom Cotton and $0 helping Hallie Shoffner.
- Early vote weight 1542
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 7% for the other party. That is 27.1 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.92 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.9 points of that tide, a headwind for Tom Cotton.
- Activity weight 1025
$584K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Hallie Shoffner trails by 10.9 and wins 4% of simulations. Closing it takes about 53,641 voters switching sides, or 107,282 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +18.3 and R +3.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +9.7. Your best recent poll is GrayHouse (R) at R +8.6; your worst is Hendrix College at R +10.4. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Pulaski, a projected net 60,127 votes; Washington, a projected net 14,700 votes; Jefferson, a projected net 8,421 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Benton, R +10.7, 10.3% of the vote; Faulkner, R +11.7, 4.5% of the vote; Mississippi, R +6.2, 0.9% of the vote; Ouachita, D +2.2, 0.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Hallie Shoffner runs furthest behind in Miller, Baxter, Boone. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 36 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.09 points; Voters without a degree, 68% of voters, 41 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 40 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.31 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Hallie Shoffner: Immigration voters 20 to 75, Small counties 32 to 63, Voters who can afford daily costs 34 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.4M cash against $6.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 27.1 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Tom Cotton's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $5.2M helping Tom Cotton and $0 helping Hallie Shoffner.
- Protect the lead
Tom Cotton leads by 10.9 in the forecast and wins 96% of simulations. The cushion is about 107,282 votes; a one point swing is about 4,917 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.3 and R +18.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +9.7. Your best recent poll is Hendrix College at R +10.4; your worst is GrayHouse (R) at R +8.6. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: White, a projected net 11,297 votes; Benton, a projected net 10,780 votes; Saline, a projected net 10,443 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Benton, R +10.7, 10.3% of the vote; Faulkner, R +11.7, 4.5% of the vote; Mississippi, R +6.2, 0.9% of the vote; Ouachita, D +2.2, 0.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Tom Cotton runs furthest behind in Jefferson, Washington, Pulaski. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 59 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.09 points; Voters without a degree, 68% of voters, 54 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 56 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.31 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Tom Cotton: Black voters 20 to 77, Large counties 26 to 71, Independents 24 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.8M cash against $1.4M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 7% for the other party. That is 27.1 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Hallie Shoffner's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Shoffner
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pulaski | D +45.0 | 13.6% | +60,127 |
| Washington | D +18.3 | 8.2% | +14,700 |
| Jefferson | D +45.2 | 1.9% | +8,421 |
| Crittenden | D +24.9 | 1.2% | +2,958 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benton | R +10.7 | 10.3% | -10,780 |
| Faulkner | R +11.7 | 4.5% | -5,217 |
| Mississippi | R +6.2 | 0.9% | -567 |
| Ouachita | D +2.2 | 0.7% | +162 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miller | R +39.8 | 1.3% | -5,065 |
| Baxter | R +45.5 | 1.7% | -7,709 |
| Boone | R +51.6 | 1.4% | -7,100 |
The coalition
Shoffner against Cotton among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters82% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.1
- Voters without a degree68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
- Voters who can afford daily costs39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +10.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +3.3 and R +18.3
- Polling average
- R +9.7
- Partisan lean
- R +29.8
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 2 | 709 LV | R +10.4 |
| GrayHouse (R) | 11 | 550 LV | R +8.6 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Shoffner | Cotton | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.7M | $7.0M |
| Spent | $2.3M | $7.6M |
| Cash on hand | $1.4M | $6.8M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $5.2M |
| Google ads | $9K | $584K |
The early vote
Arkansas, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 280,452
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +1.8
- Forecast expected
- R +28.9
- Against expectation
- 27.1 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-22Hallie Shoffner debate in Jonesboro
Scheduled debate with Libertarian Jeff Wadlin at ASU TV, the Arkansas State University student station, with Cotton not attending. Source
- 2026-10-17Hallie Shoffner event in Little Rock
Marched in the Central Arkansas Pride Parade near the state Capitol. Source
- 2026-10-15Hallie Shoffner rally in Fayetteville
Rally for Hallie at George's Majestic Lounge with live music ahead of early voting. Source
- 2026-10-12Hallie Shoffner debate in Conway
Televised debate at the Arkansas TV studios with Libertarian Jeff Wadlin, after Sen. Tom Cotton declined to take part. Source
- 2026-10-01Andy Beshear fundraiser in North Little Rock
Beshear keynoted the Arkansas Democratic Party Ballots, Blue Jeans and BBQ fundraiser where Senate candidate Shoffner also spoke. Source