How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Arkansas Governor
Fredrick Love vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 252
Raised $193K against $7.7M for Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
- Cash weight 200
$8K in the bank against $5.1M for Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
- Early vote weight 1558
Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 27.1 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1588
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.43 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 20.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Fredrick Love.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $8K against $5.1M.
- Money weight 2598
Raised $7.7M against $193K for Fredrick Love.
- Cash weight 20100
$5.1M in the bank against $8K for Fredrick Love.
- Early vote weight 1542
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 7% for the other party. That is 27.1 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1512
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.43 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 20.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Fredrick Love trails by 16.0 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 78,605 voters switching sides, or 157,211 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +24.1 and R +7.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +17.6. Your best recent poll is Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College at R +20.2; your worst is Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College at R +20.2. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Pulaski, a projected net 51,376 votes; Washington, a projected net 8,692 votes; Jefferson, a projected net 7,308 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Washington, D +11.1, 8.0% of the vote; Ouachita, R +6.8, 0.8% of the vote; Clark, R +4.0, 0.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Fredrick Love runs furthest behind in Miller, Baxter, Union. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 68% of voters, 35 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 35 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.33 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 42 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.96 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Fredrick Love: Immigration voters 12 to 78, Small counties 26 to 62, Voters who can afford daily costs 29 to 60. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$8K cash against $5.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 27.1 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders's strongest asset
Cash: $5.1M in the bank against $8K for Fredrick Love.
- Protect the lead
Sarah Huckabee Sanders leads by 16.0 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 157,211 votes; a one point swing is about 4,922 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.9 and R +24.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +17.6. Your best recent poll is Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College at R +20.2; your worst is Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College at R +20.2. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Benton, a projected net 13,318 votes; White, a projected net 12,107 votes; Saline, a projected net 12,061 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Washington, D +11.1, 8.0% of the vote; Ouachita, R +6.8, 0.8% of the vote; Clark, R +4.0, 0.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Sarah Huckabee Sanders runs furthest behind in Washington, Jefferson, Craighead. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters without a degree, 68% of voters, 54 to 35, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 54 to 35, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.33 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 47 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.96 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Sarah Huckabee Sanders: Black voters 19 to 73, Large counties 27 to 64, Independents 27 to 51. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$5.1M cash against $8K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 7% for the other party. That is 27.1 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Fredrick Love's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Love
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pulaski | D +37.9 | 13.8% | +51,376 |
| Washington | D +11.1 | 8% | +8,692 |
| Jefferson | D +37.5 | 2% | +7,308 |
| Crittenden | D +18.1 | 1.3% | +2,236 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | D +11.1 | 8% | +8,692 |
| Ouachita | R +6.8 | 0.8% | -502 |
| Clark | R +4.0 | 0.7% | -271 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miller | R +41.9 | 1.3% | -5,382 |
| Baxter | R +46.0 | 1.7% | -7,722 |
| Union | R +21.6 | 1.3% | -2,727 |
The coalition
Love against Sanders among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters without a degree68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202467% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Women55% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Immigration voters14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Small counties41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
- Voters who can afford daily costs41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +16.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +7.9 and R +24.1
- Polling average
- R +17.6
- Partisan lean
- R +29.8
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College | 2 | 709 LV | R +20.2 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Love | Sanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $193K | $7.7M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $8K | $5.1M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Arkansas, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 280,452
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +1.8
- Forecast expected
- R +28.9
- Against expectation
- 27.1 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.