How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Nebraska Governor
Lynne Walz vs Jim Pillen
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2523
Raised $3.8M against $12.7M for Jim Pillen.
- Cash weight 2010
$860K in the bank against $7.5M for Jim Pillen.
- Early vote weight 1554
Registered Democrats cast 41% of the 165,802 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 6.8 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1584
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.17 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.4 points of that tide, a tailwind for Lynne Walz.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $860K against $7.5M.
- Money weight 2577
Raised $12.7M against $3.8M for Lynne Walz.
- Cash weight 2090
$7.5M in the bank against $860K for Lynne Walz.
- Early vote weight 1546
Registered Republicans cast 43% of the 165,802 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 6.8 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1516
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.17 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.4 points of that tide, a headwind for Jim Pillen.
- Activity weight 1050
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Lynne Walz trails by 5.3 and wins 15% of simulations. Closing it takes about 20,580 voters switching sides, or 41,160 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.9 and D +1.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +4.5. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy (D) at D +0.3; your worst is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at R +7.3. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Douglas, a projected net 62,942 votes; Lancaster, a projected net 31,391 votes; Sarpy, a projected net 5,364 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sarpy, D +6.9, 10.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Lynne Walz runs furthest behind in Platte, Madison, Washington. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 41 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.48 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 43 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.46 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 49 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Lynne Walz: Immigration voters 14 to 79, Small counties 25 to 66, Voters who can afford daily costs 36 to 56. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$860K cash against $7.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 41% of the 165,802 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 6.8 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Jim Pillen's strongest asset
Cash: $7.5M in the bank against $860K for Lynne Walz.
- Protect the lead
Jim Pillen leads by 5.3 in the forecast and wins 85% of simulations. The cushion is about 41,160 votes; a one point swing is about 3,876 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +1.3 and R +11.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +4.5. Your best recent poll is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at R +7.3; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy (D) at D +0.3. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Platte, a projected net 6,981 votes; Madison, a projected net 6,145 votes; Lincoln, a projected net 5,764 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sarpy, D +6.9, 10.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jim Pillen runs furthest behind in Lancaster, Sarpy, Douglas. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 51 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.48 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 50 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.46 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 43 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jim Pillen: Independents 23 to 62, Corruption voters 28 to 65, Large counties 34 to 60. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$7.5M cash against $860K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 43% of the 165,802 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 6.8 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Lynne Walz's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Walz
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas | D +28.1 | 28.9% | +62,942 |
| Lancaster | D +23.8 | 17% | +31,391 |
| Sarpy | D +6.9 | 10% | +5,364 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpy | D +6.9 | 10% | +5,364 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platte | R +54.3 | 1.7% | -6,981 |
| Madison | R +46.6 | 1.7% | -6,145 |
| Washington | R +30.6 | 1.3% | -3,054 |
The coalition
Walz against Pillen among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters90% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.5
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202469% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties44% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.2
- Voters who can afford daily costs40% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +5.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +1.3 and R +11.9
- Polling average
- R +4.5
- Partisan lean
- R +19.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs | 0 | 598 LV | R +5.1 |
| Global Strategy Group for Walz (D) | 0 | 800 LV | R +3.4 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy (D) | 0 | 500 LV | D +0.3 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 0 | 407 LV | R +7.3 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 1 | 571 RV | R +2.2 |
| National Public Affairs | 10 | 800 LV | R +3.1 |
| YouGov | 12 | 1,809 LV | R +1.8 |
| co/efficient (R) | 15 | 1,113 LV | R +1.5 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 31 | 600 RV | R +2.8 |
| SurveyUSA | 32 | 503 LV | R +8.5 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 43 | 559 RV | R +1.9 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Walz | Pillen | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.8M | $12.7M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $860K | $7.5M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Nebraska, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 165,802
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +2.1
- Forecast expected
- R +8.9
- Against expectation
- 6.8 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Jim Pillen's Nebraska governor race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-22JD Vance rally in North Platte
Fix: the announced rally took place at the D&N Center, about 1,200 people. Vance urged support for Ricketts and Pillen and attacked Dan Osborn. Date and city unchanged. Source
- 2026-10-05Donald Trump rally in Grand Island
Rally at Pinnacle Bank Expo Center as the Ricketts race tightened against Dan Osborn. Source
- 2026-10-05Jim Pillen rally in Grand Island
Joined President Trump on stage at his midterm rally at the Pinnacle Bank Expo Center on the Nebraska State Fairgrounds. Source