How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Kentucky Senate
Charles Booker vs Andy Barr
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2513
Raised $1.7M against $12.0M for Andy Barr.
- Cash weight 2012
$310K in the bank against $2.3M for Andy Barr. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $25K helping Charles Booker and $7.2M helping Andy Barr.
- Early vote weight 1565
Registered Democrats cast 57% of the 42,258 ballots in Kentucky so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 2.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1586
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.27 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 17.8 points of that tide, a tailwind for Charles Booker.
- Activity weight 1025
$2K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $310K against $2.3M.
- Money weight 2588
Raised $12.0M against $1.7M for Charles Booker.
- Cash weight 2088
$2.3M in the bank against $310K for Charles Booker. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $7.2M helping Andy Barr and $25K helping Charles Booker.
- Early vote weight 1535
Registered Republicans cast 42% of the 42,258 ballots in Kentucky so far, against 57% for the other party. That is 2.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1514
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.27 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 17.8 points of that tide, a headwind for Andy Barr.
- Activity weight 1025
$831K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Charles Booker trails by 13.2 and wins 3% of simulations. Closing it takes about 109,344 voters switching sides, or 218,688 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +21.7 and R +4.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Jefferson, a projected net 116,373 votes; Fayette, a projected net 44,935 votes; Franklin, a projected net 4,018 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Kenton, R +8.9, 3.7% of the vote; Warren, R +10.3, 2.7% of the vote; Campbell, R +6.0, 2.2% of the vote; Hardin, R +10.6, 2.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Charles Booker runs furthest behind in Laurel, Boone, Oldham. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 40 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.51 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 42 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.44 points; Voters without a degree, 67% of voters, 40 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.37 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Charles Booker: Immigration voters 15 to 85, Small counties 31 to 69, Voters who can afford daily costs 35 to 65. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$310K cash against $2.3M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 57% of the 42,258 ballots in Kentucky so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 2.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Andy Barr's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $7.2M helping Andy Barr and $25K helping Charles Booker.
- Protect the lead
Andy Barr leads by 13.2 in the forecast and wins 97% of simulations. The cushion is about 218,688 votes; a one point swing is about 8,290 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.4 and R +21.7. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Boone, a projected net 14,073 votes; Pulaski, a projected net 13,222 votes; Laurel, a projected net 12,334 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Kenton, R +8.9, 3.7% of the vote; Warren, R +10.3, 2.7% of the vote; Campbell, R +6.0, 2.2% of the vote; Hardin, R +10.6, 2.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Andy Barr runs furthest behind in Franklin, Jefferson, Nelson. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 60 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.51 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 58 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.44 points; Voters without a degree, 67% of voters, 60 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.37 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Andy Barr: Black voters 18 to 82, Independents 29 to 71, Large counties 31 to 69. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.3M cash against $310K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 42% of the 42,258 ballots in Kentucky so far, against 57% for the other party. That is 2.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Charles Booker's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Booker
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson | D +38.8 | 18.1% | +116,373 |
| Fayette | D +35.7 | 7.6% | +44,935 |
| Franklin | D +18.5 | 1.3% | +4,018 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenton | R +8.9 | 3.7% | -5,387 |
| Warren | R +10.3 | 2.7% | -4,615 |
| Campbell | R +6.0 | 2.2% | -2,211 |
| Hardin | R +10.6 | 2.2% | -3,830 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurel | R +61.7 | 1.2% | -12,334 |
| Boone | R +29.0 | 2.9% | -14,073 |
| Oldham | R +13.6 | 1.8% | -3,965 |
The coalition
Booker against Barr among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters90% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.5
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202469% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters without a degree67% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Small counties49% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Voters who can afford daily costs41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +13.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +4.4 and R +21.7
- Polling average
- R +10.8
- Partisan lean
- R +29.5
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Booker | Barr | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.7M | $12.0M |
| Spent | $790K | $11.4M |
| Cash on hand | $310K | $2.3M |
| Outside money for | $25K | $7.2M |
| Google ads | $2K | $831K |
The early vote
Kentucky, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 42,258
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +14.8
- Forecast expected
- D +17.5
- Against expectation
- 2.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-08-29Andy Beshear rally in Frankfort
Beshear rallied with Senate candidate Charles Booker and other Kentucky Democratic hopefuls in Franklin County. Source