368,915 ballots cast in Arkansas
As of October 28, 2026, 368,915 ballots have been cast in Arkansas: 6,622 by mail and 362,293 in person. Registered Democrats cast 6.7% of them and registered Republicans 8.8%. See the Arkansas Senate forecast, and on election night the live Arkansas election results.
Strong signal for Democrats in the Arkansas Senate race
Where the party lead of the early vote has to be by now for each side to beat the On Point forecast by a lot or to prove the favorite wrong, and how far each side is from it.
| For this result | Early vote needs | It is | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats beat the forecast by 5race lands R +5.9 | R +14.8 | R +2.1 | Met |
| Republicans beat the forecast by 5race lands R +15.9 | R +42.9 | R +2.1 | 40.8 short |
| Democrats flip the racerace lands Even | D +1.8 | R +2.1 | 3.9 short |
| Matches the best Democratic poll, GrayHouse (R)race lands R +8.6 | R +22.4 | R +2.1 | Met |
| Matches the best Republican poll, Hendrix Collegerace lands R +10.4 | R +27.4 | R +2.1 | 25.3 short |
If the early vote ends where it is pointing, Shoffner needs Election Day voters to break R +16.2 to win, 2.7 points bluer than the R +18.9 the forecast expects of them. With the forecast holding, Election Day lands near R +37.6.
Benchmarks assume the rest of the early vote keeps the gap seen so far and Election Day votes as the forecast expects. Party is registration where Arkansas publishes it and the On Point party model where it does not. Crossover rates are On Point Polling likely voters nationwide. The forecast builds the early vote into the electorate it simulates, so this read is a check against the forecast, not an addition to it. Polls of the last 30 days leave out Rasmussen, ActiVote and Wedgewood, as the site average does.
The electorate of the 0 ballots cast in Arkansas
Every ballot cast so far, by the voters behind it: the forecast’s own 2026 electorate, split by who votes by mail, early in person or on Election Day, set to each county's live count and party split. Compare it with the whole electorate the forecast expects by Election Day.
How it works: every county starts from the 1,152 voter types the forecast simulates in it, by age, race, college, party, 2022 and 2024 vote history and Trump approval, each with its chance of voting. A model of On Point Polling likely voters gives each type its chance of voting by mail, early in person or on Election Day under the state’s ballot rules, and respondents add the share of women in each type and how many of the 2018 and 2020 elections it voted in. Those mixes are set to the ballots each county has actually cast by mail and in person, and to its party split, reported or modeled. Where a state publishes early voters by age, race or gender, that dimension follows the state’s count. These are estimates, not voter file counts.
Party registration of the voters who cast these ballots. It is not how they voted.
No 2022 or 2024 checkpoints for Arkansas, so there is no pace line.
Every Arkansas county
0 counties| County | Ballots | In person | Democrats | Republicans | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading counties | ||||||
Early vote questions
How many people have voted early in Arkansas?
As of October 28, 2026, 368,915 ballots have been cast in Arkansas: 6,622 mail ballots returned and 362,293 cast in person. Voters have requested 11,746 mail ballots.
Does Arkansas report early votes by party?
Yes. Of the ballots cast so far, registered Democrats have cast 6.7% of these ballots, Republicans 8.8% and independents and third parties 84.5%. Party registration shows who has voted, not how they voted.
When is Election Day in Arkansas?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 6 days after the latest count. Check the Arkansas election office for early voting locations, hours and mail ballot deadlines.
Counts come from civicAPI, which collects them from state election offices. Each state reports on its own schedule and publishes different breakdowns, so a state with no party split simply does not publish one. Pace uses each state's published 2022 and 2024 early vote checkpoints.