2026 forecast
Arkansas Senate forecast
Hallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton. The model has Cotton ahead by 13.7 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
75 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +6.7 and R +20.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +10.0 | |
| GrayHouse (R) | 550 LV | 9d | R +8.8 |
| J.L. Partners | 803 LV | 56d | R +15.1 |
| Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 62d | D +1.6 |
| 2040 Strategy Group (D) | 586 LV | 80d | R +4.7 |
| GrayHouse (R) | 550 LV | 246d | R +19.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Shoffner | Cotton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 37.2 | 58.6 |
| Women | 53% | 44.5 | 51.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 44.3 | 51.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 42.2 | 53.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 38.9 | 56.9 |
| 65+ | 31% | 41.1 | 54.8 |
| RaceWhite | 77% | 31.9 | 63.8 |
| Black | 14% | 80.6 | 16.1 |
| Latino | 4% | 54.2 | 41.5 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 63.8 | 31.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 27.0 | 68.8 |
| White women | 41% | 36.2 | 59.5 |
| Black men | 7% | 76.7 | 19.9 |
| Black women | 7% | 84.1 | 12.6 |
| Latino men | 2% | 52.9 | 42.7 |
| Latino women | 2% | 55.5 | 40.4 |
| All other races | 5% | 63.8 | 31.1 |