How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Nevada Governor
Aaron Ford vs Joe Lombardo
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2540
Raised $1.4M against $2.1M for Joe Lombardo.
- Cash weight 2032
$1.3M in the bank against $2.8M for Joe Lombardo.
- Early vote weight 1565
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 436,082 ballots in Nevada so far, against 35% for the other party. That is 8.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1571
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.63 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 8.8 points of that tide, a tailwind for Aaron Ford.
- Activity weight 1050
6 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2560
Raised $2.1M against $1.4M for Aaron Ford.
- Cash weight 2068
$2.8M in the bank against $1.3M for Aaron Ford.
- Early vote weight 1535
Registered Republicans cast 35% of the 436,082 ballots in Nevada so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 8.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1529
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.63 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 8.8 points of that tide, a headwind for Joe Lombardo.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Aaron Ford leads by 3.2 in the forecast and wins 71% of simulations. The cushion is about 39,944 votes; a one point swing is about 6,164 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.3 and D +10.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +0.2. Your best recent poll is RedBox Research (D) at D +1.6; your worst is Global Strategy Group for Ford (D) at R +3.5. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Clark, a projected net 95,997 votes; Washoe, a projected net 7,263 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Clark, D +11.3, 68.9% of the vote; Washoe, D +3.3, 18.0% of the vote; Carson City, R +10.1, 2.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Aaron Ford runs furthest behind in Douglas, Lyon, Carson City. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 87% of voters, 53 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.35 points; Voters without a degree, 67% of voters, 50 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.33 points; White voters, 66% of voters, 41 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.31 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Aaron Ford: Immigration voters 20 to 76, Small counties 27 to 66, Voters who can afford daily costs 40 to 55. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $2.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 436,082 ballots in Nevada so far, against 35% for the other party. That is 8.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Joe Lombardo's strongest asset
Cash: $2.8M in the bank against $1.3M for Aaron Ford.
- An opening
A record of results and restraint: education, health care, public safety and the economy, a no new taxes pledge and a record veto pen against the Democratic Legislature, paired with attacks on Ford's out of state travel. Source
- Close the gap
Joe Lombardo trails by 3.2 and wins 29% of simulations. Closing it takes about 19,972 voters switching sides, or 39,944 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.8 and R +4.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +0.2. Your best recent poll is Global Strategy Group for Ford (D) at R +3.5; your worst is RedBox Research (D) at D +1.6. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Lyon, a projected net 12,241 votes; Elko, a projected net 10,547 votes; Douglas, a projected net 10,506 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Clark, D +11.3, 68.9% of the vote; Washoe, D +3.3, 18.0% of the vote; Carson City, R +10.1, 2.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Joe Lombardo runs furthest behind in Clark. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 87% of voters, 43 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.35 points; Voters without a degree, 67% of voters, 46 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.33 points; White voters, 66% of voters, 54 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.31 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Joe Lombardo: Black voters 19 to 77, Health care and Social Security voters 30 to 65, Latino voters 32 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.8M cash against $1.3M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 35% of the 436,082 ballots in Nevada so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 8.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Aaron Ford's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- An opening
"High Flyin' Ford": corporate funded attorney general trips and the claim he missed 420 days of work, backed by an ethics complaint a panel advanced in February; Ford says every trip was disclosed and he has no regrets. Source
The map for Ford
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clark | D +11.3 | 68.9% | +95,997 |
| Washoe | D +3.3 | 18% | +7,263 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clark | D +11.3 | 68.9% | +95,997 |
| Washoe | D +3.3 | 18% | +7,263 |
| Carson City | R +10.1 | 2.2% | -2,675 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas | R +34.8 | 2.4% | -10,506 |
| Lyon | R +44.3 | 2.2% | -12,241 |
| Carson City | R +10.1 | 2.2% | -2,675 |
The coalition
Ford against Lombardo among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Large counties87% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.3
- Voters without a degree67% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- White voters66% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202465% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Voters who can afford daily costs39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. Get Nevada "out of this Lombardo Trump economy": lower costs, limits on corporate home buying, a drug price cap, data centers that pay for their own power, and a governor who is not bought by billionaire donors. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. "High Flyin' Ford": corporate funded attorney general trips and the claim he missed 420 days of work, backed by an ethics complaint a panel advanced in February; Ford says every trip was disclosed and he has no regrets. Source
- Strongest coalition. Hispanic voters, 51 to 20, and women, 48 to 37, in Emerson's September poll, plus organized labor led by the Culinary Union's door knocking. Source
- Weak spot in polling. Public safety and crime, where voters trust Lombardo by 12 points, with independents tied at 32 and no party candidate Danielle Ford at 7 percent in Noble Predictive Insights; his favorable rating of 41 to 38 trails Lombardo's 49 to 39 in Emerson. Source
- Recent event. Kamala Harris rallied for him at the Culinary Union in Las Vegas on October 22, 2026, calling him a chance to elect Nevada's first Black governor. Source
- Money gap. He trails: $1.3 million campaign cash to Lombardo's $2.8 million, nearly $2.7 million in PAC money to more than $5.8 million excluding governors groups, and $14.1 million in DGA side ads to $29.3 million for Better Nevada PAC, though his campaign outraised Lombardo's directly in the third quarter. Source
Top donor blocs: Labor unions, Party and leadership, Small donors
- Main message. A record of results and restraint: education, health care, public safety and the economy, a no new taxes pledge and a record veto pen against the Democratic Legislature, paired with attacks on Ford's out of state travel. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. The "Lombardo Trump economy": high fuel, housing and health costs, his tariff remark that people should "feel a little pain," vetoes of drug cost and renter bills, and policies Ford says serve billionaire donors like Bigelow. Source
- Strongest coalition. White voters, 51 to 38, and men, 47 to 41, in Emerson's September poll, with a 49 to 39 favorable rating; voters trust him over Ford on public safety and crime by 12 points in Noble Predictive Insights. Source
- Weak spot in polling. Hispanic voters, where he trails 20 to 51, and Trump's 37 to 55 approval among likely voters; his economic approval is 45 to 47 in Noble, and RedBox Research had him down 43 to 46 on October 23. Source
- Recent event. At an October fundraiser he said "There's no place easier to vote in the nation than Nevada. Unfortunately," reported by the Nevada Current on October 22 and pushed by the state Democratic Party; his campaign did not comment. Earlier he skipped the October 9 Carson City forum, leaving Ford at an empty podium. Source
- Money gap. He leads: $2.8 million campaign cash to Ford's $1.3 million, more than $5.8 million in PAC money to Ford's $2.7 million excluding governors groups, and $29.3 million in Better Nevada PAC ads to $14.1 million for the DGA side, though Ford outraised his campaign directly in the third quarter. Source
Top donor blocs: Billionaire megadonor, Party and leadership, Gambling, Utilities and energy, Mining
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +10.8 and R +4.3
- Polling average
- R +0.2
- Partisan lean
- R +1.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox Research (D) | 0 | 1,470 LV | D +1.6 |
| Global Strategy Group for Ford (D) | 2 | 700 LV | R +3.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 19 | 708 LV | R +2.5 |
| Emerson College | 37 | 680 LV | D +2.7 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Ford | Lombardo | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.4M | $2.1M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $1.3M | $2.8M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$10.5M
The early vote
Nevada, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 436,082
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +5.5
- Forecast expected
- R +3.0
- Against expectation
- 8.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-14Brian Tyler Cohen podcaster, leans D
Interviewed Democratic governor candidate Aaron Ford. Source
- 2026-09-29Charlamagne tha God host, leans other
Pressed Democratic candidate Aaron Ford on The Breakfast Club for citing Trump as his reason to run and demanded his own vision for Nevada. Source
- 2026-09-22Larry Sabato analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Nevada governor race from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-22Mark Kelly event in Las Vegas
Canvass launch and phone bank with Gabby Giffords, Ford and Titus, per the Nevada Independent visit tracker; Kelly also sat on an IndyFest panel. Source
- 2026-10-22Rahm Emanuel event in Las Vegas
Joined the same canvass launch and phone bank with Giffords, Ford and Titus, per the Nevada Independent visit tracker. Source
- 2026-10-21Kamala Harris event in Las Vegas
Culinary Union membership meeting launching her final midterm swing. Source
- 2026-10-17Aaron Ford event in Las Vegas
Cast his ballot at a downtown Las Vegas polling place on day one of early voting with his wife and supporters. Source
- 2026-10-07Pete Buttigieg fundraiser in Henderson
Fundraiser with Lee, then a Las Vegas youth economy event with Ford and Horsford. Source
- 2026-10-07Raphael Warnock event in Las Vegas
Countdown to early voting event. Source
- 2026-09-26Wes Moore event in Las Vegas
Two canvass launches with Nevada Democrats. Source
- 2026-08-05Donald Trump rally in Las Vegas
At a Red Rock Casino event billed around tax relief, Trump called Gov. Lombardo on stage and praised the GOP ticket. Source