How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Idaho Senate
Todd Achilles, independent vs Jim Risch
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2530
Raised $1.6M against $3.8M for Jim Risch.
- Cash weight 205
$194K in the bank against $3.5M for Jim Risch. As of 06/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 154
Registered Democrats cast 29% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 70% for the other party. That is 10.4 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Todd Achilles.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $194K against $3.5M.
- Money weight 2570
Raised $3.8M against $1.6M for Todd Achilles.
- Cash weight 2095
$3.5M in the bank against $194K for Todd Achilles. As of 06/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1596
Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 10.4 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Jim Risch.
- Activity weight 1025
$156K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Todd Achilles trails by 21.1 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 76,746 voters switching sides, or 153,492 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +27.9 and R +14.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +18.8. Your best recent poll is Advanced Targeting Research at D +4.1; your worst is Peak Insights (R) at R +22.1. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Ada, a projected net 22,700 votes; Blaine, a projected net 5,768 votes; Latah, a projected net 2,397 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Ada, D +10.5, 29.8% of the vote; Bannock, R +6.6, 4.4% of the vote; Valley, R +2.8, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Todd Achilles runs furthest behind in Idaho, Jefferson, Cassia. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 92% of voters, 34 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.60 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 64% of voters, 36 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.23 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 57% of voters, 41 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.85 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Todd Achilles: Immigration voters 11 to 83, Small counties 28 to 65, Voters who can afford daily costs 28 to 65. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$194K cash against $3.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 29% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 70% for the other party. That is 10.4 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Jim Risch's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party.
- Protect the lead
Jim Risch leads by 21.1 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 153,492 votes; a one point swing is about 3,629 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +14.1 and R +27.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +18.8. Your best recent poll is Peak Insights (R) at R +22.1; your worst is Advanced Targeting Research at D +4.1. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Kootenai, a projected net 30,997 votes; Canyon, a projected net 25,023 votes; Bonneville, a projected net 14,639 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Ada, D +10.5, 29.8% of the vote; Bannock, R +6.6, 4.4% of the vote; Valley, R +2.8, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jim Risch runs furthest behind in Latah, Ada, Blaine. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 92% of voters, 59 to 34, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.60 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 64% of voters, 57 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.23 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 57% of voters, 52 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.85 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jim Risch: Independents 23 to 63, Latino voters 38 to 55, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 38 to 53. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$3.5M cash against $194K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 10.4 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Todd Achilles's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Achilles
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | I +10.5 | 29.8% | +22,700 |
| Blaine | I +51.9 | 1.5% | +5,768 |
| Latah | I +13.8 | 2.4% | +2,397 |
| Teton | I +23.5 | 0.7% | +1,260 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | I +10.5 | 29.8% | +22,700 |
| Bannock | R +6.6 | 4.4% | -2,104 |
| Valley | R +2.8 | 0.8% | -165 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | R +60.8 | 1.2% | -5,112 |
| Jefferson | R +65.4 | 1.6% | -7,746 |
| Cassia | R +60.2 | 1.1% | -4,608 |
The coalition
Achilles against Risch among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters92% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202465% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Women51% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters15% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.8
- Small counties34% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.7
- Voters who can afford daily costs43% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +21.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +14.1 and R +27.9
- Polling average
- R +18.8
- Partisan lean
- R +36.0
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights (R) | 0 | 500 LV | R +22.1 |
| VoteNexus (D) | 0 | 700 LV | R +7.4 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 15 | 500 LV | R +20.6 |
| Advanced Targeting Research | 29 | 700 RV | I +4.1 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Achilles | Risch | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.6M | $3.8M |
| Spent | $506K | $2.2M |
| Cash on hand | $194K | $3.5M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $156K |
The early vote
Idaho, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 28,945
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +40.2
- Forecast expected
- R +29.8
- Against expectation
- 10.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
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