How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Ohio Senate special
Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2576
Raised $61.7M against $19.2M for Jon Husted.
- Cash weight 2065
$16.2M in the bank against $8.9M for Jon Husted. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1532
Outside groups spent $95.8M helping Sherrod Brown and $203.5M helping Jon Husted.
- National tide weight 1575
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.77 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.8 points of that tide, a tailwind for Sherrod Brown.
- Activity weight 10100
11 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 3 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $4.2M in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- Money weight 2524
Raised $19.2M against $61.7M for Sherrod Brown.
- Cash weight 2035
$8.9M in the bank against $16.2M for Sherrod Brown. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1568
Outside groups spent $203.5M helping Jon Husted and $95.8M helping Sherrod Brown.
- National tide weight 1525
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.77 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.8 points of that tide, a headwind for Jon Husted.
- Activity weight 1075
8 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 3 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $56K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Sherrod Brown leads by 4.6 in the forecast and wins 84% of simulations. The cushion is about 217,740 votes; a one point swing is about 23,823 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +1.3 and D +10.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.0. Your best recent poll is Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies at D +6.0; your worst is Rasmussen Reports (R) at R +0.6. 21 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Cuyahoga, a projected net 252,982 votes; Franklin, a projected net 236,546 votes; Hamilton, a projected net 112,329 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Stark, R +6.2, 3.2% of the vote; Delaware, D +5.9, 2.3% of the vote; Lake, D +2.0, 2.2% of the vote; Mahoning, D +9.6, 2.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Sherrod Brown runs furthest behind in Clermont, Warren, Greene. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 86% of voters, 46 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.29 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 50 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.38 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 49 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.21 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Sherrod Brown: Immigration voters 23 to 74, Small counties 27 to 70, Midsize counties 43 to 54. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$16.2M cash against $8.9M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Jon Husted's strongest asset
Activity: 8 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Jon Husted trails by 4.6 and wins 16% of simulations. Closing it takes about 108,870 voters switching sides, or 217,740 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.4 and R +1.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.0. Your best recent poll is Rasmussen Reports (R) at R +0.6; your worst is Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies at D +6.0. 21 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Clermont, a projected net 24,652 votes; Warren, a projected net 24,044 votes; Butler, a projected net 20,711 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Stark, R +6.2, 3.2% of the vote; Delaware, D +5.9, 2.3% of the vote; Lake, D +2.0, 2.2% of the vote; Mahoning, D +9.6, 2.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jon Husted runs furthest behind in Cuyahoga, Summit, Mahoning. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 86% of voters, 51 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.29 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 47 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.38 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 48 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.21 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jon Husted: Black voters 15 to 83, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 27 to 69, Independents 27 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$8.9M cash against $16.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Sherrod Brown's strongest asset
Activity: 11 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
The map for Brown
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuyahoga | D +51.0 | 10.4% | +252,982 |
| Franklin | D +46.9 | 10.6% | +236,546 |
| Hamilton | D +32.5 | 7.2% | +112,329 |
| Summit | D +26.1 | 4.8% | +59,548 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stark | R +6.2 | 3.2% | -9,379 |
| Delaware | D +5.9 | 2.3% | +6,391 |
| Lake | D +2.0 | 2.2% | +2,115 |
| Mahoning | D +9.6 | 2% | +9,126 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont | R +27.1 | 1.9% | -24,652 |
| Warren | R +21.4 | 2.4% | -24,044 |
| Greene | R +8.4 | 1.6% | -6,260 |
The coalition
Brown against Husted among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters86% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.3
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202468% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters without a degree64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties15% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Midsize counties38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. Lower costs and fight a rigged system; he calls his opponent special interest Jon who works for billionaires, utilities and Wall Street. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Husted says Brown spent 32 years in Congress with little to show for it and wants to shut down power plants; outside ads hit him on transgender issues, the theme that helped beat him in 2024. Source
- Strongest coalition. Independents: Marist, October 15 to 18, had him ahead 50 to 35 among independent likely voters and 48 to 44 overall. Source
- Notable event. FactCheck.org said his FirstEnergy ads imply wrongdoing by Husted that no one has charged. Source
- Money gap. He leads in hard dollars but outside spending against him is about $164 million through October 23. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Party and leadership, Crypto and finance
- Main message. Ohio has more jobs than ever; help Ohioans earn more and keep more, with no tax on tips, overtime and Social Security under his Working Families Tax Credit Act. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. FirstEnergy and HB 6, which Brown and outside groups use to call him special interest Jon; FactCheck.org says the ads imply wrongdoing he was never charged with. Source
- Second vulnerability. His work ethic and poverty remarks, which Brown attacks. Source
- Weak spot in polling. Marist, October 15 to 18, had him down 44 to 48 among likely voters and 35 to 50 among independents. Source
- Recent event. Musk put more than $7 million behind him as of October 19, 2026. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Crypto and finance, Utilities and energy
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +4.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +10.4 and R +1.3
- Polling average
- D +4.0
- Partisan lean
- R +9.8
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | R +0.4 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 635 LV | D +3.6 |
| Marist University | 0 | 883 LV | D +1.9 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 0 | 1,592 LV | D +4.7 |
| VoteHub/Verasight | 0 | 531 LV | D +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 0 | 1,200 LV | D +5.0 |
| RedBox Research (D) | 0 | 2,998 LV | D +1.3 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 0 | 508 LV | R +0.3 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1 | 901 LV | R +0.6 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 2 | 959 LV | D +6.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | 9 | 925 LV | D +2.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | 10 | 760 LV | D +4.9 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Brown | Husted | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $61.7M | $19.2M |
| Spent | $22.3M | $10.3M |
| Cash on hand | $16.2M | $8.9M |
| Outside money for | $95.8M | $203.5M |
| Google ads | $4.2M | $56K |
- Senate Leadership Fund against Sherrod Brown$69.7M
- Defend American Jobs for Jon Husted$45.9M
- WinSenate against Jon Husted$42.7M
- No Going Back PAC against Sherrod Brown$27.8M
- Americans for Prosperity Action against Sherrod Brown$19.6M
- Duty and Country against Jon Husted$13.9M
- 75 PAC against Sherrod Brown$8.0M
- America PAC against Sherrod Brown$7.9M
- All advertisers combined, more than Source$466.0M
- Republican side supporting Husted, nearly Source$270.0M
- Democratic side supporting Brown, more than Source$180.0M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$82.4M
- WinSenate, new IE filings Oct 21 to 22 Source$2.2M
- Ohio Flyer PAC, IE opposing Brown, filed Oct 20 Source$3.1M
The early vote
Ohio, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,123,397
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.8
- Forecast expected
- D +10.3
- Against expectation
- 1.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-22Harry Enten analyst
On Anderson Cooper 360 he said Sherrod Brown holds a four point lead over Jon Husted in Ohio. Source
- 2026-10-22Robby Soave commentator, leans other
Predicted in Reason that Republicans will likely lose the Ohio Senate seat. Source
- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Said he is worried for Republicans in Ohio. Source
- 2026-10-20David Axelrod commentator, leans D
Said Sherrod Brown should win, though he could be painted as establishment. Source
- 2026-10-17Brian Tyler Cohen podcaster, leans D
Interviewed Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown; the episode page listed it as 5 days old on Oct 22. Source
- 2026-10-16Harry Enten analyst
Named Ohio among six toss up Senate races and warned Democrats of a big siren because polls are within the margin of error. Source
- 2026-10-13Ali Velshi host, leans D
Anchored The 11th Hour live from Columbus covering the Ohio Senate contest. Source
- 2026-10-12Jake Paul commentator, leans R
Spoke at Trump's Youngstown rally and urged Ohioans to vote Nov 3 so Republicans keep control, without naming candidates. Source
- 2026-10-06Nate Silver analyst
His Silver Bulletin forecast gave Sherrod Brown a 73.9% chance to unseat Jon Husted. Source
- 2026-08-17Harry Enten analyst
In a YouTube forecast video listed Ohio as a Democratic lead of 3 points. Source
- 2026-06-08Karl Rove commentator, leans R
On the Journal Editorial Report called Sherrod Brown a terrific candidate and predicted a horserace with Jon Husted. Source
- 2026-06-08Paul Gigot host, leans R
Hosted the Journal Editorial Report segment where Karl Rove weighed the Brown vs Husted and Iowa Senate races. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-02Sherrod Brown announced in Columbus
Announced joint stop with Amy Acton on their closing swing, date taken from the weekday given in the report. Source
- 2026-11-01Sherrod Brown announced in Cleveland
Announced joint stop with Amy Acton on their closing swing, date taken from the weekday given in the report. Source
- 2026-10-29Sherrod Brown announced in Toledo
Announced joint stop with Amy Acton on their closing swing, date taken from the weekday given in the report. Source
- 2026-10-28Donald Trump announced in Chillicothe
Announced Wednesday rally, his third Ohio rally of the fall, remarks expected at 7 p.m., venue to be announced. Whether Husted and Ramaswamy will attend was not confirmed. Source
- 2026-10-28Sherrod Brown announced in Cincinnati
Announced joint stop with Amy Acton on their closing swing, date taken from the weekday given in the report. Source
- 2026-10-26Sherrod Brown rally in Dayton
Monday evening downtown rally with Amy Acton and special guest John Legend before hundreds of supporters. Source
- 2026-10-26John Legend rally in Dayton
Special guest at the Fighting for Ohio rally, also visited several small businesses in the area. Source
- 2026-10-25Sherrod Brown rally in Akron
Rally with Dr. Amy Acton the day after the Obama rally in Cleveland. Source
- 2026-10-24Barack Obama announced in Cleveland
Afternoon rally per press release; venue not named. Source
- 2026-10-24Sherrod Brown announced in Cleveland
Scheduled afternoon rally with former President Barack Obama and governor nominee Dr. Amy Acton. Source
- 2026-10-21JD Vance rally in Sharonville
Rally at Sharonville Convention Center in Greater Cincinnati. Source
- 2026-10-17Sherrod Brown rally in Toledo
Campaign rally at the Central Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters with Rep. Marcy Kaptur and local officials. Source