2026 forecast
Arkansas Governor forecast
Fredrick Love vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders. The model has Sanders ahead by 15.8 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
75 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +8.0 and R +23.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +4.5 | |
| J.L. Partners (R) | 803 LV | 56d | R +2.4 |
| Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 62d | R +6.3 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Love | Sanders |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 35.7 | 59.2 |
| Women | 53% | 43.0 | 51.9 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 42.2 | 52.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 40.5 | 54.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 37.5 | 57.4 |
| 65+ | 32% | 39.8 | 55.1 |
| RaceWhite | 77% | 30.3 | 64.5 |
| Black | 14% | 79.9 | 16.1 |
| Latino | 4% | 52.3 | 42.6 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 61.3 | 32.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 25.4 | 69.4 |
| White women | 41% | 34.5 | 60.2 |
| Black men | 7% | 76.0 | 19.9 |
| Black women | 7% | 83.4 | 12.6 |
| Latino men | 2% | 50.8 | 43.9 |
| Latino women | 2% | 53.5 | 41.5 |
| All other races | 5% | 61.3 | 32.6 |