Election Day, Nov 3 6 daysSenate D 85%House D 97%Governors D 86%Forecast updated Oct 28
Search
The Weighting Room
6 DAYS OUT
KS SenHamilton D +0.2SC SenAndrews D +0.6KS GovHolscher D +0.9TX SenTalarico D +1.0NE SenOsborn I +1.2GA GovBottoms D +2.1IA SenTurek D +2.2TX GovAbbott R +2.3OH GovActon D +2.4ME SenJackson D +3.0FL GovDonalds R +3.1FL SenMoody R +3.2NV GovFord D +3.2AK SenPeltola D +4.5OH SenBrown D +4.6WI GovCrowley D +5.0
2026 forecast ยท Florida 24th

Oliver Gilbert III is all but certain to win Florida's 24th District.

Oliver Gilbert III vs Te Mayonna Brown, an open seat. The model has III ahead by 50.3 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +50.3Updated October 28, 2026
Oliver Gilbert III
Democrat
75.1%
204,847 projected votes
Te Mayonna Brown
Republican
24.9%
67,860 projected votes
100%III
0%Brown
III all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, III wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for III
Model marginD +50.3No polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +56.3 to D +43.52,000 simulations
Projected votes272,707III 75.1%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Florida districts

28 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Oliver Gilbert IIIDemocrat ยท 100% to win
75.1%
Te Mayonna BrownRepublican ยท 0% to win
24.9%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

272,707 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Oliver Gilbert III D204,84775.1%
Te Mayonna Brown R67,86024.9%
Total272,707100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% III0% Brown19 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Florida governor polling average
36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%MayJunJulAugSepOct44.2Jolly48.7Donalds
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
RedBox Research (D)Oct 23 ยท 4,823 LV ยท NR16%Donalds +5.3
On Point PollingOct 18 ยท 378 LV ยท Gold16%Donalds +3.9
New York Times/SienaOct 26 ยท 813 LV ยท Gold16%Donalds +4.0
Fabrizio Lee for Donalds (R)Oct 11 ยท 1,200 LV ยท A16%Donalds +6.0
University of North FloridaOct 19 ยท 1,471 LV ยท NR13%Donalds +2.0
Echelon Insights for NetChoiceOct 23 ยท 515 LV ยท B7.5%Donalds +6.0
Every other poll together: 14%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
III +50.3
Chance of winning
Oliver Gilbert III100%
Te Mayonna Brown0%
Simulated vote
Oliver Gilbert III75.1%
Te Mayonna Brown24.9%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +38.0
FundamentalsD +50.5
With pollsD +50.3

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +61R +61Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +38.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +50.5With pollsno pollsD +50.3
On Point on YouTubeThe Florida House race, explained on YouTubeForecast breakdowns, the polls and election night coverage on the On Point channel.Subscribe
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.