Election Day, Nov 3 6 daysSenate D 85%House D 97%Governors D 86%Forecast updated Oct 28
Search
The Weighting Room
6 DAYS OUT
KS SenHamilton D +0.2SC SenAndrews D +0.6KS GovHolscher D +0.9TX SenTalarico D +1.0NE SenOsborn I +1.2GA GovBottoms D +2.1IA SenTurek D +2.2TX GovAbbott R +2.3OH GovActon D +2.4ME SenJackson D +3.0FL GovDonalds R +3.1FL SenMoody R +3.2NV GovFord D +3.2AK SenPeltola D +4.5OH SenBrown D +4.6WI GovCrowley D +5.0
2026 forecast ยท Florida 14th

Kathy Castor is favored to win Florida's 14th District.

Kathy Castor vs Mike Beltran. The model has Castor ahead by 4.9 points, winning 81 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean DModel D +4.9Polls D +3.0Updated October 28, 2026
Kathy Castor
Democrat
52.5%
167,458 projected votes
Mike Beltran
Republican
47.5%
151,672 projected votes
81%Castor
19%Beltran
Castor favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Castor wins about 81 of 100
RatingLean D81% chance for Castor
Model marginD +4.9Polls D +3.0
80 percent rangeD +12.3 to R +2.42,000 simulations
Projected votes319,130Castor 52.5%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Florida districts

28 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Kathy CastorDemocrat ยท 81% to win
52.5%
Mike BeltranRepublican ยท 19% to win
47.5%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

319,130 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Kathy Castor D167,45852.5%
Mike Beltran R151,67247.5%
Total319,130100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%81% Castor19% Beltran19 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Florida governor polling average
36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%MayJunJulAugSepOct44.2Jolly48.7Donalds
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
RedBox Research (D)Oct 23 ยท 4,823 LV ยท NR16%Donalds +5.3
On Point PollingOct 18 ยท 378 LV ยท Gold16%Donalds +3.9
New York Times/SienaOct 26 ยท 813 LV ยท Gold16%Donalds +4.0
Fabrizio Lee for Donalds (R)Oct 11 ยท 1,200 LV ยท A16%Donalds +6.0
University of North FloridaOct 19 ยท 1,471 LV ยท NR13%Donalds +2.0
Echelon Insights for NetChoiceOct 23 ยท 515 LV ยท B7.5%Donalds +6.0
Every other poll together: 14%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageD +3.0

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Castor +4.9
Chance of winning
Kathy Castor81%
Mike Beltran19%
Simulated vote
Kathy Castor52.5%
Mike Beltran47.5%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +10.0
FundamentalsD +7.3
With pollsD +4.9

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +12R +12Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +10.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +7.3With pollsaverage D +3.0D +4.9
On Point on YouTubeThe Florida House race, explained on YouTubeForecast breakdowns, the polls and election night coverage on the On Point channel.Subscribe
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.