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2026 forecast ยท Florida 16th

Sydney Gruters is favored to win Florida's 16th District.

Kelly Kirschner vs Sydney Gruters, an open seat. The model has Gruters ahead by 5.6 points, winning 80 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Lean RModel R +5.6Polls R +0.0Updated October 28, 2026
Kelly Kirschner
Democrat
47.2%
152,064 projected votes
Sydney Gruters
Republican
52.8%
170,102 projected votes
80%Gruters
20%Kirschner
Gruters favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Gruters wins about 80 of 100
RatingLean R80% chance for Gruters
Model marginR +5.6Polls R +0.0
80 percent rangeD +3.1 to R +14.52,000 simulations
Projected votes322,166Gruters 52.8%

The district map

Every district in the state, shaded by its rating

Florida districts

28 districts
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe R

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Kelly KirschnerDemocrat ยท 20% to win
47.2%
Sydney GrutersRepublican ยท 80% to win
52.8%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected district vote

322,166 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Sydney Gruters R170,10252.8%
Kelly Kirschner D152,06447.2%
Total322,166100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%20% Kirschner80% Gruters19 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

The Florida governor polling average
36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%MayJunJulAugSepOct44.2Jolly48.7Donalds
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day
What moves the average today
RedBox Research (D)Oct 23 ยท 4,823 LV ยท NR16%Donalds +5.3
On Point PollingOct 18 ยท 378 LV ยท Gold16%Donalds +3.9
New York Times/SienaOct 26 ยท 813 LV ยท Gold16%Donalds +4.0
Fabrizio Lee for Donalds (R)Oct 11 ยท 1,200 LV ยท A16%Donalds +6.0
University of North FloridaOct 19 ยท 1,471 LV ยท NR13%Donalds +2.0
Echelon Insights for NetChoiceOct 23 ยท 515 LV ยท B7.5%Donalds +6.0
Every other poll together: 14%

This is the same On Point polling average as the full average page. The forecast reads the polls through its own Election Day projection, shown as the On Point average in the table below, and blends it with partisan lean and fundamentals.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageR +0.0

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Gruters +5.6
Chance of winning
Kelly Kirschner20%
Sydney Gruters80%
Simulated vote
Kelly Kirschner47.2%
Sydney Gruters52.8%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +13.0
FundamentalsR +6.0
With pollsR +5.6

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +16R +16Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +13.0Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +6.0With pollsaverage R +0.0R +5.6
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Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.