How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Virginia Senate
Mark Warner vs Bert Mizusawa
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2595
Raised $19.9M against $992K for Bert Mizusawa.
- Cash weight 2097
$7.5M in the bank against $230K for Bert Mizusawa. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $171K helping Mark Warner and $0 helping Bert Mizusawa.
- National tide weight 1568
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.54 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 7.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Mark Warner.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $83K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 255
Raised $992K against $19.9M for Mark Warner.
- Cash weight 203
$230K in the bank against $7.5M for Mark Warner. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Bert Mizusawa and $171K helping Mark Warner.
- National tide weight 1532
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.54 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 7.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Bert Mizusawa.
- Activity weight 1025
$2K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $230K against $7.5M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Mark Warner leads by 16.2 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 600,566 votes; a one point swing is about 18,547 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.1 and D +23.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Fairfax County, a projected net 236,083 votes; Arlington County, a projected net 74,623 votes; Richmond city, a projected net 73,168 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Virginia Beach city, D +10.9, 5.2% of the vote; Stafford County, D +9.8, 1.8% of the vote; Spotsylvania County, R +1.2, 1.7% of the vote; James City County, D +12.0, 1.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Mark Warner runs furthest behind in Hanover County, Bedford County, Frederick County. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 71% of voters, 49 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.56 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 56 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.29 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 59 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Mark Warner: Immigration voters 22 to 75, Small counties 40 to 57, White voters 49 to 48. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$7.5M cash against $230K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Bert Mizusawa's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- Close the gap
Bert Mizusawa trails by 16.2 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 300,283 voters switching sides, or 600,566 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +23.4 and D +9.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Bedford County, a projected net 18,461 votes; Augusta County, a projected net 15,142 votes; Hanover County, a projected net 12,518 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Virginia Beach city, D +10.9, 5.2% of the vote; Stafford County, D +9.8, 1.8% of the vote; Spotsylvania County, R +1.2, 1.7% of the vote; James City County, D +12.0, 1.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Bert Mizusawa runs furthest behind in Prince William County, Loudoun County, Fairfax County. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 71% of voters, 48 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.56 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 40 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.29 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 37 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Bert Mizusawa: Black voters 19 to 78, Asian and other voters 23 to 74, Health care and Social Security voters 24 to 73. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$230K cash against $7.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Mark Warner's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $171K helping Mark Warner and $0 helping Bert Mizusawa.
The map for Warner
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County | D +47.9 | 13.3% | +236,083 |
| Arlington County | D +67.6 | 3% | +74,623 |
| Richmond city | D +73.3 | 2.7% | +73,168 |
| Prince William County | D +33.1 | 5.1% | +62,071 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach city | D +10.9 | 5.2% | +20,907 |
| Stafford County | D +9.8 | 1.8% | +6,530 |
| Spotsylvania County | R +1.2 | 1.7% | -766 |
| James City County | D +12.0 | 1.1% | +4,881 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hanover County | R +22.5 | 1.5% | -12,518 |
| Bedford County | R +46.9 | 1.1% | -18,461 |
| Frederick County | R +22.7 | 1.1% | -9,130 |
The coalition
Warner against Mizusawa among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters71% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties27% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.3
- White voters71% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +16.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +23.4 and D +9.1
- Polling average
- D +18.6
- Partisan lean
- D +7.4
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Warner | Mizusawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $19.9M | $992K |
| Spent | $17.9M | $805K |
| Cash on hand | $7.5M | $230K |
| Outside money for | $171K | $0 |
| Google ads | $83K | $2K |
The early vote
Virginia, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,186,652
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +23.1
- Forecast expected
- D +24.5
- Against expectation
- 1.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-07Barack Obama fundraiser in
DSCC fireside chat fundraiser with Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester raised $3.6 million. Source