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South Dakota Senate
Brian Bengs, independent vs Mike Rounds
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2532
Raised $1.7M against $3.7M for Mike Rounds.
- Cash weight 202
$51K in the bank against $2.7M for Mike Rounds. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Brian Bengs and $1.4M helping Mike Rounds.
- Early vote weight 1519
Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party. That is 3.9 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.03 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.4 points of that tide, a tailwind for Brian Bengs.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $51K against $2.7M.
- Money weight 2569
Raised $3.7M against $1.7M for Brian Bengs.
- Cash weight 2098
$2.7M in the bank against $51K for Brian Bengs. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $1.4M helping Mike Rounds and $0 helping Brian Bengs.
- Early vote weight 1581
Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 3.9 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.03 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.4 points of that tide, a headwind for Mike Rounds.
- Activity weight 1025
$22K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Brian Bengs trails by 14.4 and wins 2% of simulations. Closing it takes about 27,628 voters switching sides, or 55,256 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +22.8 and R +5.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +11.5. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) at R +1.8; your worst is Quantus Insights at R +19.0. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Minnehaha, a projected net 7,802 votes; Oglala Lakota, a projected net 2,835 votes; Todd, a projected net 1,600 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Minnehaha, D +9.4, 21.6% of the vote; Pennington, R +11.1, 13.1% of the vote; Brown, R +11.1, 4.0% of the vote; Brookings, R +1.7, 3.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Brian Bengs runs furthest behind in Hughes, Butte, Meade. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 91% of voters, 40 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.56 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 41 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.68 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 42 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Brian Bengs: Immigration voters 16 to 84, Voters who can afford daily costs 32 to 68, Incomes $125K and up 37 to 63. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$51K cash against $2.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party. That is 3.9 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Mike Rounds's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $1.4M helping Mike Rounds and $0 helping Brian Bengs.
- Protect the lead
Mike Rounds leads by 14.4 in the forecast and wins 98% of simulations. The cushion is about 55,256 votes; a one point swing is about 1,919 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.2 and R +22.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +11.5. Your best recent poll is Quantus Insights at R +19.0; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) at R +1.8. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Pennington, a projected net 5,570 votes; Meade, a projected net 5,556 votes; Lincoln, a projected net 4,035 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Minnehaha, D +9.4, 21.6% of the vote; Pennington, R +11.1, 13.1% of the vote; Brown, R +11.1, 4.0% of the vote; Brookings, R +1.7, 3.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Mike Rounds runs furthest behind in Minnehaha, Clay. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 91% of voters, 60 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.56 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 59 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.68 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 58 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Mike Rounds: Independents 30 to 70, Moderates 32 to 68, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 35 to 65. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.7M cash against $51K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 3.9 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Brian Bengs's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Bengs
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnehaha | I +9.4 | 21.6% | +7,802 |
| Oglala Lakota | I +87.0 | 0.8% | +2,835 |
| Todd | I +72.1 | 0.6% | +1,600 |
| Clay | I +25.7 | 1.5% | +1,449 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnehaha | I +9.4 | 21.6% | +7,802 |
| Pennington | R +11.1 | 13.1% | -5,570 |
| Brown | R +11.1 | 4% | -1,719 |
| Brookings | R +1.7 | 3.6% | -236 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hughes | R +28.6 | 2.1% | -2,256 |
| Butte | R +53.9 | 1.2% | -2,436 |
| Meade | R +42.5 | 3.4% | -5,556 |
The coalition
Bengs against Rounds among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters91% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202474% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters without a degree64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Voters who can afford daily costs42% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
- Incomes $125K and up15% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +14.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +5.2 and R +22.8
- Polling average
- R +11.5
- Partisan lean
- R +28.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies for Rounds (R) | 0 | 500 LV | R +13.7 |
| Quantus Insights | 0 | 630 LV | R +19.0 |
| Emerson College | 0 | 803 LV | R +7.2 |
| Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center | 1 | 500 LV | R +18.2 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | 7 | 400 LV | R +1.8 |
| Zenith Research | 18 | 500 LV | R +5.6 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 36 | 629 RV | R +4.2 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Bengs | Rounds | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.7M | $3.7M |
| Spent | $731K | $2.3M |
| Cash on hand | $51K | $2.7M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $1.4M |
| Google ads | $0 | $22K |
The early vote
South Dakota, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 49,438
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +22.3
- Forecast expected
- R +18.5
- Against expectation
- 3.9 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.