2026 forecast
Virginia Senate forecast
Mark Warner vs Bert Mizusawa. The model has Warner ahead by 21.5 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
133 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +28.5 and D +14.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +21.9 | |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 996 LV | 119d | D +18.3 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project (R) | 1,047 LV | 161d | D +27.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Warner | Mizusawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 55.2 | 41.5 |
| Women | 54% | 62.5 | 34.2 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 62.4 | 34.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 59.0 | 37.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 58.3 | 38.3 |
| 65+ | 29% | 58.3 | 38.4 |
| RaceWhite | 67% | 47.7 | 48.9 |
| Black | 19% | 86.7 | 10.1 |
| Latino | 6% | 71.0 | 25.8 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 80.6 | 15.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 31% | 41.9 | 54.7 |
| White women | 37% | 52.5 | 44.1 |
| Black men | 9% | 83.9 | 12.8 |
| Black women | 10% | 89.0 | 7.7 |
| Latino men | 3% | 70.0 | 26.7 |
| Latino women | 3% | 71.9 | 24.9 |
| All other races | 9% | 80.6 | 15.6 |